Reds Can’t Afford to Move Nick Lodolo This Offseason

The Cincinnati Reds have many questions to answer this offseason. Do they exercise their mutual option or re-sign Eugenio Suarez? Do they trade Emilio Pagan? What do they do with Ke’Bryan Hayes? Matt McLain? 

Cincinnati’s front office is not in an enviable position right now; with all these decisions comes a ton of pressure, and it may be the most criticized front office in all of MLB. 

One of the more intriguing players is Nick Lodolo, who has one more year left on his contract before he becomes a free agent. The lanky left-hander is a former first-round pick out of TCU and has had a very up-and-down career with the Reds, showing dominant stuff at times while also struggling through injuries pretty consistently. 

In 2023 and 2024, Lodolo missed significant time on the IL dealing with calf, groin, finger sprain, and blister issues. In 2026, the blister issue returned, leading to multiple stints on the IL. The recurring blister forced Lodolo to change his slider grip in the second half of 2026. 

The most concerning thing about Lodolo isn’t just the blister; it’s that when he was seemingly healthy this past season, his production took a deep dive, leading to one of the worst seasons of his career. He had a 4.97 ERA in 108.2 innings pitched. In four starts in August, Lodolo posted a 7.71 ERA, allowing 14 runs over 16.1 innings. 

He had only one month with an ERA below four, and it was July, when he made just two starts before returning to the IL. 

Before the injury, I would have said Lodolo was a very interesting trade candidate for the Reds, likely in the offseason, as he had just one year left on his deal. But now, I don’t think the Reds have a choice but to keep him unless offered a major league-ready pitching prospect, which is unlikely after his struggles this past year. 

Given that Hunter Greene will miss a big chunk of the 2027 season, Brady Singer needs a new deal, and the lack of worthy prospects in the Reds' minor league system to vault into the starting rotation, you should expect Lodolo to be making starts in a Reds uniform next season. 

If he can turn things around and have a big first half, maybe the Reds can trade him to a contender looking for left-handed pitching help as they look to possibly add prospects.