{"time":1769181424422,"blocks":[{"id":"et9bAe1bzB","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Per Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press, the Tigers have expressed interest in Nick Martinez and José Quintana as they continue to build rotational depth. Detroit has also checked in on right-handers Chris Bassitt and Lucas Giolito, and with the addition of Drew Anderson, along with the emergence of Troy Melton and Keider Montero, the organization is focused on ensuring it has sufficient pitching to contend for another postseason run in 2026."}},{"id":"ANa7Z5QqdR","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"The approach makes sense. Reese Olson has dealt with recurring injuries, and with much of the AL Central remaining relatively quiet this offseason, Detroit appears intent on capitalizing on its current window. That urgency is heightened as Tarik Skubal enters what could be his final season in a Tigers uniform."}},{"id":"w-IaS0Yuue","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"After all, Drew Anderson does not carry a lot of starter experience, only two big league starts and just 44.1 total innings. Melton will be new to the rotation with four big league starts under his belt and while Montero has the ability to give the Tigers innings, he can be inconsistent. Sawyer Gipson-Long could be used out of the pen or start, but he also has not be able to stay healthy since his strong September 2023 debut, missing all of 2024 due to Tommy John surgery. "}},{"id":"pZSdxfqgYk","type":"header","data":{"text":"What to expect from Nick Martinez","level":1}},{"id":"KvY3Xpz_y1","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Diving into Baseball Savant data, suggests Martinez’s underlying numbers in 2025 have taken a step back from 2024, particularly in contact quality and swing-and-miss. Statcast data shows increases in expected slugging (xSLG) and expected wOBA (xwOBA) against him compared to last season, signaling hitters are doing more damage when they make contact. His hard-hit rate and barrel totals have also trended upward, while his strikeout rate has dipped closer to league average after being a strength earlier in his career."}},{"id":"W2wKmwkvY4","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Pitch-by-pitch data helps explain the shift. Martinez has leaned more heavily on his cutter and four-seam fastball, but neither pitch has generated the same level of whiffs as in 2024. His changeup remains effective as a chase pitch, particularly against left-handed hitters, but it has been less dominant overall, with a decline in both whiff rate and put-away percentage. The slider, once a reliable secondary weapon, has also produced more contact and fewer empty swings."}},{"id":"j3T2UCrMSN","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"That said, Martinez still profiles as a viable depth arm because of his versatility and strike-throwing ability. His walk rate remains under control, and his pitch mix allows him to navigate lineups multiple times, even if the margin for error has narrowed. For Detroit, the expectation would not be ace-level production, but rather innings stability and matchup flexibility, especially if the Tigers continue to manage workloads carefully behind Tarik Skubal."}},{"id":"h5yPX3O_Gn","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"In short, the data suggests Martinez is closer to a back-end starter or multi-inning swing option than the version seen in 2024, but in the context of rotation depth and durability, he still fits the type of profile Detroit has prioritized."}},{"id":"BhCYTbOh1Y","type":"header","data":{"text":"How Detroit Could Optimize Martinez","level":3}},{"id":"ZiVSLZZ0MJ","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"If the Tigers were to bring in Nick Martinez, the focus would likely be on tightening his pitch usage rather than overhauling his arsenal. One adjustment would be reducing reliance on his four-seam fastball, which has been more contact-prone, and leaning more heavily into his cutter and changeup pairing. The cutter remains his best pitch for weak contact, while the changeup still plays well against left-handed hitters when located below the zone."}},{"id":"ITh2hFZk0K","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Detroit could also look to sequence Martinez more aggressively. Data suggests his secondary pitches perform better when used earlier in counts, rather than as chase offerings late. By flipping that script, the Tigers could help Martinez steal early strikes and avoid predictable fastball counts, an approach the organization has emphasized with several recent arms."}},{"id":"-VOtbt1iYB","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"The Tigers would be betting less on a rebound to his 2024 peak and more on extracting value through usage, sequencing, and matchup management, a strategy that aligns with how Detroit has handled depth arms in recent seasons. Giving Detroit at least 120-130 innings would be ideal with a strong second half. "}},{"id":"Fuf-3jbGmZ","type":"header","data":{"text":"What to expect from José Quintana","level":2}},{"id":"7z47h5R2X0","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"The underlying data suggests Quintana’s effectiveness is trending in the wrong direction, particularly when it comes to contact quality. While he has continued to take the ball and provide innings, Statcast indicators point to diminished margin for error. In 2025, his barrel rate and barrel-per-plate-appearance figures have climbed to some of the highest marks of his career, a red flag for a pitcher whose success has long relied on limiting hard contact rather than overpowering hitters."}},{"id":"ZKuPYWibr1","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Pitch-level data helps explain why. Quintana’s sinker usage has increased significantly, but the pitch has become more hittable, with elevated expected slugging and expected wOBA against. His four-seam fastball, already a below-average bat-misser, has also seen declining results, particularly when elevated. While his curveball and changeup can still generate occasional swings and misses, neither offering consistently suppresses damage, and both are being put in play more frequently."}},{"id":"DjvvuMlF4M","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"The quality-of-contact profile is especially concerning. Quintana is allowing fewer weakly hit balls and a higher percentage of solid contact, with flare and barrel rates trending above league norms. That combination suggests hitters are seeing the ball earlier and squaring him up more often, even when he avoids walks. His strikeout rate has dipped well below league average, further reducing his ability to escape jams without relying on batted-ball luck."}},{"id":"j4KkU8z60d","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"For Detroit, the question would not be whether Quintana can still function at the major-league level, but rather how narrow the path has become. At this stage, he profiles best as a back-end starter who needs strong defense, favorable matchups, and careful workload management. The data does not point toward a rebound to his peak seasons, but instead toward a pitcher whose value lies in experience and innings rather than impact."}},{"id":"7YqL1lc7U0","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"In short, Quintana can still help a team stabilize a rotation, but the metrics suggest his best days are likely behind him, and any acquisition would need to be framed around depth and risk mitigation rather than upside."}},{"id":"5TeuhZ0w9E","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Giolito, Martinez or Bassitt would be much more ideal options to stabilize the rotation but expect a move to come soon as there is 20 days left before pitchers and catchers report to Lakeland. "}},{"id":"gp6ukTGXer","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Follow me on \"X\" @rogcastbaseball. "}}],"version":"2.31.0"}

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