Colt Keith was known for his power in the minors, hitting 38 home runs in 924 at-bats with 45 doubles. So far, he has hit 13 home runs in each of his first two major league seasons. People have asked me and Chris Brown where is this power people have talked about?

That is a fair question, because Keith’s major league production has been more solid than loud. He hit 13 home runs as a rookie in 2024, followed with 13 more in 2025, and through the 2026 sample provided, he had four home runs with a .267/.311/.390 slash line. That is not a bad line, especially for a 24-year-old hitter still settling in, but it does not match the minor league reputation of a left-handed bat with impact.

The Baseball Savant data helps explain why the power took time to show up. The short version is this: Keith had pieces of the power profile working, but not always at the same time.

His expected numbers suggest the actual slugging percentage has been a little light compared to the contact quality. Keith’s 2026 expected slugging percentage sat at .429, compared to his actual .390 slugging percentage.

His expected batting average was .267, right in line with his actual average, so this is not a case where every part of the profile screams bad luck. It is more specific than that. The batting average has mostly lined up. The power output has lagged behind the type of contact he has made.

That becomes clearer when breaking the season into smaller pieces, after all, it is a long season. 

April was not a weak-contact month. Keith averaged 94.1 mph off the bat in the April data, with a 53.3 percent hard-hit rate and four barrels.  The problem was that the shape of the contact did not fully support home run production. He hit the ball hard, but too much of that contact was either on the ground, on a lower line, or to parts of the park where hard contact can still turn into loud outs.

The air-ball data adds another layer. In April, Keith had 14 air balls hit at 95 mph or harder, including seven fly balls. Six of those balls were hit at 95-plus mph with a launch angle between 20 and 35 degrees, a useful range for identifying hard contact with enough lift to do damage. Still, none of them became home runs. He had a 99.9 mph flyout at 33 degrees that traveled 371 feet on April 10. He had a 100.7 mph flyout at 29 degrees that went 376 feet on April 20. Those are not lazy fly balls. They are the type of batted balls that explain why the home run total felt lighter than the contact quality.

May had a different issue. Keith started getting the ball in the air more often, but the contact quality backed up. In the May data, his average exit velocity dropped to 87.1 mph, his hard-hit rate fell to 28.9 percent and he produced only one barrel. He still had nine air balls hit 95 mph or harder, but only two of them were fly balls. Only three were in that 95-plus mph, 20-to-35 degree launch-angle range. His swing looked flat at times. This single up the middle was 105 MPH

That is the difference between lifting the ball and creating true power contact. A ball hit in the air at 86 mph and a ball hit in the air at 101 mph are both air balls, but they are not the same thing. May had more air contact, but not enough of it had the exit velocity and launch angle combination that usually turns into home runs.

June is where the profile started to line up. Through June 15, Keith had 12 air balls hit 95 mph or harder, seven of them were fly balls and eight were in the 20-to-35 degree launch-angle range. Four of those balls became home runs. That is the cleaner explanation for the sudden power. It was not just that he hit the ball in the air. It was that he hit the ball hard in the air and did it more often in a launch-angle band where home runs are more realistic.

The barrel data tells the same story. In June, Keith produced six barrels in 24 batted balls, a 25 percent barrel rate in that small sample. His hard-hit rate jumped to 54.2 percent. The sample is small, so it should not be treated like a new baseline yet, but it does explain why the results changed. April had hard contact without the home run payoff. May had lift without enough authority. June finally brought hard contact, lift and barrels together.

There is also a bat-tracking angle worth noting. Keith’s average bat speed is up from 70.7 mph in 2025 to 72.0 mph in 2026. His fast-swing rate has also doubled, going from 10 percent last season to 20.9 percent this year. He is not suddenly one of the hardest swingers in baseball, but he has moved closer to league average bat speed while maintaining a controlled swing.

The bigger number is his squared-up rate. Keith’s squared-up percentage jumped from 28.1 percent of swings in 2025 to 33.6 percent in 2026, putting him in the 93rd percentile. That is a strong indicator because it points to swing efficiency. He is not just swinging harder. He is getting the barrel to the ball more often.

The directional data also supports the possibility of more power. Keith’s pull-air percentage is up to 20.3 percent in 2026, after sitting at 18.0 percent in 2025 and 14.0 percent in 2024. Pull-air percentage is exactly what it sounds like: batted balls that are both pulled and hit in the air. For a left-handed hitter, that is one of the cleaner paths to more home runs. Keith does not need to become a one-dimensional pull hitter, but if more of his best contact is going to the pull side in the air, the home run total has a better chance to catch up.

There is still one more area to watch: fastballs. Keith has not homered against fastballs yet in the 2026 sample, even though his expected slugging against them is .435. His four home runs have come against non-fastballs, two against offspeed pitches and two against breaking balls. That does not mean he cannot handle velocity. It means the fastball power has not fully shown up yet. If he starts converting some of that fastball contact into home runs, the overall power line could move quickly.

That is the most reasonable answer to the question about where the power has been. It was not missing completely. It was showing up in pieces. In April, the ball was coming off the bat hard, but the home runs did not come with it. In May, he lifted the ball, but too much of it lacked the kind of authority needed to leave the park. In June, the contact finally started to match the shape of a power surge. He has said it himself, he is still doing a lot of the same things he always has at the plate. 

Keith’s early home run total may have undersold the profile. His bat speed is better. His squared-up rate is excellent. His pull-air percentage is moving in the right direction. His expected slugging is stronger than his actual slugging. The next step is sustaining the June version of the contact profile over a longer stretch.

The power people talked about in the minors has not fully arrived as a finished major league product, but the indicators are easier to see now. The better way to say it is this: Keith has not suddenly become a different hitter. The contact quality is starting to line up in a way that gives the power a better chance to show up.

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