Spencer Torkelson's Projected Salary Creates an Interesting Decision for the Tigers

Spencer Torkelson’s future with the Detroit Tigers does not appear to be in serious jeopardy heading into the offseason. Scott Harris made that fairly clear during his end-of-season press conference, praising Torkelson’s September and saying the organization believes he can help them return to the postseason.

The more interesting question is what the Tigers should expect from him now that the financial component of the conversation is changing.

MLB Trade Rumors projects Torkelson to earn $7.7 million through arbitration in 2027, the second-highest projection among Detroit’s arbitration-eligible players behind Riley Greene at $9.3 million. That is hardly an unreasonable salary in today’s game, particularly for a player who has produced 25 or more home runs in three consecutive seasons, but it does move Torkelson further away from the developmental phase of his career.

At some point, the former No. 1 overall pick has to be evaluated simply as the player he is.

Torkelson finished 2026 hitting .230 with 26 home runs and a .766 OPS, good for a 113 OPS+. Those numbers are respectable, but the season contained the same type of dramatic stretches that have made him difficult to evaluate throughout his major league career. After going without a home run in August, Torkelson hit .296 with six home runs and a 1.080 OPS in September.

Harris pointed directly to that improvement when discussing Torkelson after the season.

“I think there were periods where he was an offensive force, including this month, where he was performing at a really high level,” Harris said during the Tigers’ end-of-season press conference. He also noted Torkelson was swinging at better pitches and beginning to use the opposite field more often, particularly with two strikes and runners in scoring position.

That version of Torkelson is an easy player to tender a contract at $7.7 million.

The question is how frequently the Tigers can get that version.

Bless You Boys recently examined Detroit’s arbitration class and noted that Torkelson’s production has not always reached the level typically expected offensively from a first baseman. At the same time, the Tigers do not have an obvious right-handed replacement who makes moving on from Torkelson particularly attractive.

That roster construction matters.

Detroit has added several young position players to its major league core, including Kevin McGonigle, Max Clark and Hao-Yu Lee, but none directly solves the need for right-handed power. Kerry Carpenter provides significant offensive production from the left side when healthy, while Riley Greene remains one of the lineup’s centerpieces. Torkelson still gives the Tigers something the roster does not have in abundance.

That makes a non-tender difficult to justify, especially for a club with enough payroll flexibility that $7.7 million should not prevent it from addressing other needs.

However, keeping Torkelson and guaranteeing him the first-base job should be viewed as two different decisions.

Harris also acknowledged that there is work remaining defensively at first base. Torkelson’s offensive production has to carry considerably more weight if the defense does not improve, particularly at a position where offensive expectations are already high.

There is also less reason now to grade Torkelson on potential. He will turn 28 during the 2027 season and has accumulated enough major league plate appearances for Detroit to understand both his strengths and limitations. The flashes of significant power are real. So are the extended periods in which the offensive production disappears.

The Tigers should tender Torkelson a contract, and Harris’ comments make it difficult to imagine any other outcome. At MLB Trade Rumors’ projected $7.7 million salary, there is still enough upside to make that an easy decision. What changes in 2027 is the standard.

Torkelson no longer needs to prove he belongs in the major leagues. He has already done that. The next challenge is proving that his best stretches can become consistent enough for Detroit to consider him an important part of a lineup trying to return to October, rather than a player the organization is still waiting to become something more.