Riding a hot streak, Detroit must outpace the Guardians and navigate a treacherous final schedule to snatch a wild-card berth. Every inning is now a do-or-die battle.
If the Detroit Tigers are holding onto any hope of making the playoffs, it will come down to a miraculous final 13 games.
The Tigers have suddenly found some life at the perfect time, winning five of their last six games after sweeping the Colorado Rockies and taking two of three from the Minnesota Twins.
So, let's ask the simple question:
Can the Detroit Tigers still make the playoffs?
The short answer is yes.
The much more complicated answer is that Detroit would need to pull off something that would border on miraculous.
The Tigers currently sit 5.5 games behind the Cleveland Guardians with just 13 games remaining. That leaves Detroit with almost no room for error over the final stretch of the regular season.
However, Tigers fans have seen something somewhat similar before.
Last season, Detroit held a massive 15-game lead over Cleveland in the division before somehow watching that lead disappear. The Tigers ultimately lost the division to the Guardians but still managed to make the playoffs.
This situation is different.
For starters, neither team has been nearly as dominant as they were a year ago. More importantly, Detroit isn't chasing Cleveland for the division this time around. The Tigers are desperately trying to climb into the sixth and final playoff spot.
And the math is brutal.
Detroit Needs to Make Up 7 Games
For Detroit to claim the final playoff spot, the Tigers will need to finish seven games better than the Guardians over the remaining schedule.
Detroit does have an extra game in hand, with 13 games remaining compared to Cleveland's 12.
At the most basic level, if Cleveland goes 3-9 over its final 12 games, Detroit would need to go 10-3 over its final 13.
That would mean the Tigers would have to win nearly every remaining series while simultaneously hoping Cleveland completely collapses down the stretch.
Is it possible?
Yes.
Is it likely?
Absolutely not.
But after the last week, at least there is something to talk about.
Sometimes you have to believe in miracles.
Who Do the Tigers Play?
Detroit has four series remaining, and the schedule gives the Tigers an interesting combination of challenges and opportunities.
It all begins Monday night in the Great White North.
Toronto Blue Jays
Detroit heads to Canada for a three-game series against the Toronto Blue Jays.
This is arguably the most important series of the entire stretch because Toronto is currently just one game behind Cleveland for the final wild-card spot.
The Blue Jays enter the series at 75-75, sitting exactly at .500.
That means Detroit isn't simply trying to catch Cleveland. The Tigers are also going to have to navigate a Toronto team that has its own playoff aspirations.
If Detroit wants to start its miraculous run, winning this series would be an enormous first step.
Chicago White Sox
After Toronto, the Tigers travel to Chicago for a four-game series against the division-leading White Sox.
Detroit and Chicago have already played three series against each other this season, and each one has ended in a sweep.
Chicago took the first series.
Detroit answered by sweeping the second.
Then Chicago took the third.
Now the fourth and final series between the two teams will close out the season series, and it could come at a fascinating point in the playoff race.
The White Sox enter at 76-73, leading the division despite being only three games above .500. That record is also good enough for second in the American League.
If Detroit is going to make an improbable run, it will have to find a way to win games against a Chicago team that has already proven capable of putting together a strong season without dominating its opponents.
Washington Nationals
Following the Toronto and Chicago series, Detroit finally returns home to Comerica Park for the final two series of the regular season.
First up will be a three-game series against the Washington Nationals.
Washington enters at 70-81 and sits 12.0 games out of the playoffs with 12 games remaining. That means the Nationals are essentially on the brink of elimination, with their next loss potentially ending their postseason hopes.
On paper, this is the type of series Detroit has to take advantage of.
If the Tigers are serious about making an impossible comeback, they cannot afford to waste opportunities against teams that are already on the outside looking in.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Then comes the final series of the regular season against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
The Pirates also sit at 75-75, exactly .500, and enter the final stretch six games out of the playoffs.
That means Pittsburgh could potentially still be fighting for its own postseason life when it arrives at Comerica Park for the final three games of the regular season.
Detroit's season could literally come down to those three games.
Is a Miracle Possible?
The schedule isn't impossible.
That's the part that makes this interesting.
Detroit doesn't have to run through a gauntlet of teams with 100 wins. The Tigers have two .500 teams in Toronto and Pittsburgh, a Chicago team just three games above .500 and a Washington team that is already on the verge of elimination.
But that doesn't mean the schedule is easy.
Detroit needs to play outstanding baseball while simultaneously getting significant help from Cleveland.
Going 10-3 over the final 13 games is a massive ask for any team.
Having another team go 3-9 over its final 12 makes the equation even more difficult.
The Tigers have given themselves at least a sliver of hope by winning five of their last six. Now they have to turn that momentum into something much bigger.
It will take great baseball.
It will take some help.
It will take plenty of luck.
And, quite possibly, it will take a miracle.
As a wise man named Ted Thompson once said, “There’s nothing wrong with hoping for a miracle.”
For the Tigers, that's exactly what they are doing.
