I talk about pitching depth all the time. This is why it matters. I’ll just be brutally honest: I do not like how we scout and evaluate pictures in the modern age. I think it is completely bizarre that we live in a world in which Tommy John is something that’s now a rite of passage. I think that’s a terrible precedent to set. To me, that’s like saying that you can’t play running back in the NFL unless you tear your ACL a few times. The whole thing seems backwards.
Now, there is nothing to indicate that Troy Melton is due to undergo major surgery, but as we learned with Jackson Jobe a year ago, these young pitchers often experience arm soreness. Very often, they’re able to bounce back, but it’s simply prolonging the inevitable. I think one of the reasons why Tarik Skubal was so undervalued when he was coming into the draft was that he had already had Tommy Johnson’s surgery. His stuff got progressively better after he left college, unlike Casey Mize, whose stuff peaked at Auburn and has since required Tommy John surgery and several other injuries.
I’m not trying to fearmonger here. I really like Troy Melton. You could argue that in some ways, he’s saved the pitching staff last year down the stretch. I don’t think anybody expected once he made his debut in July that he would be starting game one of a playoff series, but that’s ultimately what happened, and even though Detroit ended up coming up short in game five of the ALDS, one of the reasons why they were so close to advancing in first place was because of Troy Melton‘s production. You can tell the guys got it between the ears, and his stuff is nasty.
From a team standpoint, I have confidence that Detroit will survive this. They have loaded up on their pitching depth this offseason, and even though this farm system is not as deep with pitchers as it is with position players, this is an organization that’s shown an ability to find and develop pitching. Ultimately, they’ll be fine. As far as Melton is concerned, I know I talk all the time about how spring training doesn’t really matter, and it doesn’t if we’re talking statistically, but I do think it’s important that players can get their reps in in spring training. Parker Meadows didn’t have a spring last year, and you could tell it ultimately affected him when he came back into the lineup. It’s the same with pitchers. I don’t think there was much belief that Melton would start the year in the rotation, but having a month-plus of potential innings wiped out by arm soreness is extremely frustrating and a little concerning.
I don’t like to speak things into existence. I wish the best for Melton, and I hope that he comes back healthy and we see a productive version of him in 2026, but I don’t think it’s wrong to feel a certain sense of pessimism when you read this news. We’ve seen this movie play out 1 million times before, not just with Detroit, but with other organizations as well. We’ll be holding our breath for a little bit. Hopefully, he comes back healthy.