As Justin Verlander returns, Detroit prioritizes stability over upside. Montero’s multi-inning versatility offers a critical bridge for a shaky bullpen struggling to find reliable middle-relief consistency.
With Justin Verlander reportedly lined up to return Sunday against the White Sox, the Tigers had to make a rotation decision, and for now, Keider Montero is the arm getting pushed into the bullpen.
That does not mean it is the most exciting move. It does not even mean Montero has the highest relief ceiling. But based on the available numbers, it is the cleaner short-term fit for a bullpen that is currently operating without much margin for error, based on his current pitching style, which is lately a fly-ball one.
The initial reaction to yesterday's news that Keider Montero was heading to the bullpen was met with frustration by the fanbase, who then saw him allowed two runs, one earned by some bad Tigers defense. Montero has been sequencing better with his pitches and his fastball has become a strength.
The Tigers’ bullpen has not been a disaster by ERA, but the underlying picture explains why this group still feels unstable. Using the FanGraphs data from qualified relievers, Detroit ranks 20th in reliever WAR at 1.2. The group has a 3.90 ERA, 4.06 FIP and 4.06 xFIP, with an 8.39 K/9, 3.80 BB/9 and 1.00 HR/9. That is a middle-to-lower tier bullpen by value, not a unit carrying a playoff staff.
The individual qualified relievers show the problem. Drew Anderson has been useful, with a 10.80 K/9, 3.61 FIP and 0.4 WAR, but he is also allowing 1.23 HR/9. Brant Hurter has a 2.82 ERA and heavy ground-ball profile, but the strikeout rate is only 6.85 K/9, and the xFIP sits at 4.05. Enmanuel De Jesus has a strong 2.98 FIP, but the ERA and xERA are closer to the low-fours. Tyler Holton’s walk rate is excellent, but he has been hurt by a .356 BABIP and a 17.4 percent HR/FB rate. Kyle Finnegan has the shiny 1.95 ERA, but the 4.67 FIP, 5.56 xFIP, 5.85 BB/9 and negative WAR tell you why it feels shaky.
So, when you ask why Montero over Troy Melton, the answer is not simply “Montero is better.” It is more specific than that. Montero is the better fit for the role Detroit probably needs right now, which is a multi-inning stabilizer, not necessarily a one-inning wipeout arm.
That is where Montero makes more sense.
The concern with Montero is fair. He does not miss bats at the level you would normally want from a late-inning bullpen conversion. His Baseball Savant profile shows a lower strikeout rate, and the eye test backs up your point, he has looked more fly-ball oriented than you would like. That is not ideal in leverage spots, especially when the bullpen already has home run volatility.
But Montero also has a broader pitch mix, more major league workload and a better case as a bridge arm. He can give Detroit two or three innings if Verlander is limited Sunday, if a starter exits early, or if the bullpen gets taxed.They need someone who can keep a game from getting sideways in the fifth, sixth or seventh.
Melton is the more tempting relief projection on pure stuff. He throws harder, has a deep arsenal, and in theory, a move to shorter bursts could allow the fastball and slider to play up. But the data is not clean enough yet to say he is clearly the better bullpen option right now.
His leverage splits are interesting but noisy. In high-leverage spots, opponents have only a .136/.130/.136 line with a .267 OPS against him. That sounds like a bullpen argument. Then you look at medium leverage, where opponents have hit .261/.333/.587 with four home runs and a .920 OPS. That pulls the conversation back to sample size and volatility.
The times-through-the-order splits do not make the case simple either. First time through the order, hitters have an .830 OPS against Melton. Second time through, that drops to .702. Third time through, it falls to .533, but that comes with a .053 BABIP, which is not something you build a major role around. If the goal is to move him to the bullpen because he dominates the first look, the current numbers do not really say that yet.
Verlander’s return creates the crunch. The Tigers are trying to add a veteran starter back into the rotation, and probable pitching plans can still change, as MLB’s own probable pitchers page notes. But if Verlander is back Sunday, someone had to slide. Montero is easier to move because his value can translate immediately into bulk relief. Melton’s development path is probably better protected by keeping him stretched out, especially with such a small major league Statcast sample.
That is the simplest way to frame it: Montero to the bullpen is more practical and one of need, it seems, than exciting. Melton may have the better traditional relief traits, but Montero gives the Tigers length, pitch diversity and a safer floor in a bullpen that has too many moving parts.
The best version of this move is not Montero becoming a one-inning setup man. It is Montero becoming the guy who can cover three innings, save the rest of the bullpen and prevent A.J. Hinch from having to use four relievers by the seventh inning. If Detroit uses him that way, the move makes sense.
If they start using him as a late-inning leverage arm while the strikeout rate remains modest and the fly balls keep coming, then that can be a problem. He could go back to when he is allowing home runs, which for the most part this season, he has kept down.
For now, the move is understandable. It is also probably temporary. But in the current bullpen setup, Montero is the best short-term bullpen fit than Melton, mostly because the Tigers need stability and innings more than another unproven conversion project.
Follow me on "X" @rogcastbaseball. Join the Tigers Roundtable community by downloading our app. It's free and it gives you an outlet to vent about the Tigers or write something lengthy.
