Do the Cubs Have Enough to Make a Realistic Tarik Skubal Trade?

Keeping up with all these trade rumors can be a lot but there is another one out there that involves a team that the Tigers are well familiar with as I complete this series about the current trade market, only this time, focusing on Tarik Skubal. 

The Chicago Cubs have emerged as another possible landing spot for Tarik Skubal, and the connection makes sense. Chicago is in the NL  playoff race, but its rotation has been hit hard by injuries and inconsistency. Adding Skubal would give the Cubs a legitimate Game 1 starter and the type of pitcher capable of changing the direction of a postseason series.

The Cubs need starting pitching badly enough to make the call. The more difficult question is whether they are prepared to meet Detroit’s price, which has been the case with all the teams mentioned. 

The Tigers do not appear interested in trading Skubal for a group of players who may be ready two or three years from now. They want young, controllable major-league talent that could keep the team competitive while also strengthening the roster beyond this season.

There is also an obvious connection between the Tigers and Cubs front offices.

Scott Harris spent seven seasons in Chicago’s baseball operations department and eventually became an assistant general manager. Tigers general manager Jeff Greenberg also worked for the Cubs before joining Detroit.

That familiarity does not mean the Cubs would receive a discount, nor does it guarantee that a deal will happen.

However, Harris and Greenberg should have a strong understanding of Chicago’s organizational philosophy, player-development system and internal evaluations. They are also familiar with several players who entered the Cubs’ system while they were working there.

That knowledge could help Detroit identify players it believes are undervalued or capable of taking another step. It will not make Chicago more willing to overpay, and it should not make the Tigers more willing to accept less.

Tigers receive: RHP Ben Brown, INF Matt Shaw, INF/OF James Triantos and OF Kevin Alcántara

Cubs receive: LHP Tarik Skubal

This is a much different return than the prospect-heavy packages discussed with the Dodgers and Brewers.

All four Cubs players are already on the 40-man roster and have reached the major leagues. They also remain young enough to fit Detroit’s long-term plans rather than serving as short-term replacements.

For the Tigers, that would be the appeal.

Detroit would not be replacing Skubal with one premium prospect and several lottery tickets. The Tigers would be acquiring four players who could immediately compete for major-league roles.

Brown would be the starting point of the package.

The 26-year-old right-hander has major-league experience as both a starter and reliever. His fastball and breaking ball give him legitimate swing-and-miss ability, and he has already demonstrated that he can handle major-league hitters when his command is working.

Brown would not replace Skubal’s production. Very few pitchers could.

His purpose in the trade would be to prevent Detroit from creating an empty rotation spot with no immediate replacement. Brown could enter the Tigers’ rotation or work in a bulk role while the organization determines where he fits best.

There is medical risk involved.

Brown has dealt with a neck injury, and Chicago’s rotation has been affected by injuries throughout the season. Detroit would need full confidence in Brown’s medical information before making him a central part of the return. If not, perhaps go with right-hander Jaxon Wiggins, whose numbers are promising but, not that proven starter but more on that later.

Brown remains a logical target because he provides major-league experience, remaining club control and the ability to contribute immediately.

Shaw would be the most valuable position player in the proposed return.

The 24-year-old can play third base, second base and other positions when needed. He combines athleticism, defensive flexibility and enough offensive upside to develop into an everyday player.

Detroit has several young infielders, but that should not prevent the Tigers from asking for Shaw.

The Tigers still need to improve the overall quality of the lineup. Adding another player capable of handling multiple positions would give A.J. Hinch more options and create competition throughout the roster.

He would also provide something Detroit should prioritize in a Skubal trade: a young player who is not several years away from helping. The challenge is convincing Chicago to include him.

Shaw is already part of the Cubs’ major-league plans and may be the most difficult position player in this package for them to surrender. A Skubal trade is supposed to strengthen Chicago’s playoff roster, and moving Shaw would remove someone who can already contribute to it.

From Detroit’s perspective, that is exactly why he should be part of the asking price.

Triantos  would serve as the advanced complementary piece.

His best skill is his ability to make contact. He also brings speed and the ability to play multiple positions, giving Detroit another player who could move around the field rather than being locked into one spot. Triantos would not be expected to headline the return.

His value would come from his proximity to the majors and his potential to become a useful regular or high-quality utility player. He could compete for at-bats at second base, third base, designated hitter or in the outfield.

There are questions about how much power he will produce and where he fits best defensively. Those concerns limit his ceiling, but they do not eliminate his value as part of a larger package.

The Tigers would be acquiring a player who has already reached the majors and could help sooner than a lower-level prospect. Plus, he only struck out at a 11.6% clip

Alcántara may be the most intriguing fit in the package.

The Tigers need more athleticism in the outfield and another player capable of handling center field. Alcántara would give them both.

The 23-year-old stands 6-foot-6 and offers an unusual combination of size, speed and raw power. He can play all three outfield positions and has enough range to receive opportunities in center.

His offensive game remains inconsistent.

Alcántara will need to control the strike zone and make enough contact for his power to show up regularly. That creates risk, but it is also why he may be more available than some of Chicago’s other young players.

The Cubs have several established outfield options, and Alcántara has not secured a permanent major-league role. Detroit could offer him that opportunity. But 

He would not enter the organization as a guaranteed everyday center fielder, but he would give the Tigers a player with the physical tools to grow into the position.The Tigers could use another right-handed thumper but a 30% K rate in Triple-A, I can see why the Tigers may hesitate. Gives me Steven Moya vibes. 

Wiggins should also be part of the conversation, but adding him on top of Brown, Shaw, Triantos and Alcántara may push the proposal beyond what Chicago would realistically consider.

The 24-year-old is the best upper-level pitching prospect remaining in the Cubs’ system. MLB Pipeline currently ranks him third in Chicago’s updated system and gives him a 70-grade fastball and 60-grade slider. His fastball can reach 101 mph, while his slider gives him another potential swing-and-miss weapon.

The concern is his control and durability.

Wiggins underwent Tommy John surgery in college and has not been allowed to handle a full traditional starter’s workload. His command has also been inconsistent since reaching Triple-A.

The upside is still considerable. MLB Pipeline projects a potential No. 2 starter if he throws enough strikes and proves he can handle the innings.

Detroit should ask for him, particularly because Brown’s injury history creates uncertainty.

The problem is the cumulative price.

Brown, Shaw, Triantos and Alcántara already represent four young major-league players. Adding Chicago’s top upper-level pitching prospect would require the Cubs to surrender five controllable assets for a pitcher who can become a free agent after the season.

That is probably too much unless another contender forces Chicago to increase its offer.

A more reasonable use of Wiggins would be as a replacement for one of the position players.

For example:

Tigers receive: RHP Ben Brown, INF Matt Shaw, OF Kevin Alcántara and RHP Jaxon Wiggins

Cubs receive: LHP Tarik Skubal

That version gives Detroit two potential starting pitchers, an everyday infield candidate and a possible center fielder.

Chicago would retain Triantos but surrender more pitching upside.

The Cubs would be acquiring one of the best pitchers in baseball.

Skubal would immediately move to the front of their rotation and give Chicago an ace capable of matching up with any starter in the National League.

The Cubs’ need is also greater because of the injuries throughout their staff. FanGraphs recently described Chicago’s rotation situation as one requiring significant deadline reinforcement, with Skubal at the top of the market if Detroit makes him available.

Chicago would not be trading for Skubal simply to reach the postseason.

The Cubs would be making the deal because they believe he could help them win a World Series.

The package would take four players from Chicago’s 40-man roster.

Brown is part of the club’s pitching depth. Shaw is a young position player with everyday upside. Triantos provides contact and flexibility, while Alcántara remains one of the organization’s more physically gifted outfielders.

Chicago would improve the top of its rotation while weakening several other areas of the organization.

The Cubs would also be paying that price for a player who can become a free agent after the season.

That is the central issue with every Skubal proposal.

No team doubts his talent. The question is how much long-term value a club will surrender for one postseason run and no guarantee of an extension.

This package would give the Tigers four players capable of helping immediately.

Brown could join the rotation. Shaw could compete for an everyday infield role. Triantos would add contact and versatility, while Alcántara could receive an opportunity in center field.

The return would also fit Detroit’s existing timeline.

The Tigers would not be asking fans to wait several years for the prospects to reach the majors. Harris could argue that the organization exchanged one elite player for four young players who improve the roster in several areas.

That would not make trading Skubal popular.

It would at least give the Tigers a clearer explanation for the move.

This proposal matches the reported idea of Brown plus three major-league players.

It gives Detroit immediate help without requiring Chicago to move Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cade Horton or Moisés Ballesteros. The Cubs would still pay a substantial price, but the deal would not completely empty the top of the organization.

The largest obstacle is Shaw.

If Chicago views him as untouchable, Detroit may not find enough impact talent in the rest of the package.

This version has more pitching upside and may be more attractive to Detroit.

It is also more difficult for Chicago because Wiggins is the best pitching prospect remaining in a system that has already thinned considerably. MLB Pipeline ranked him among baseball’s Top 100 prospects entering the season, and the Cubs may be especially reluctant to move him given their lack of long-term pitching depth.

The Tigers are playing it so close to the vest, who knows what will happen in the next three days but for now, the Cubs are the latest team involved in these rumors.

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