Vegas expects only marginal improvement from the Chicago White Sox in 2026, setting a low bar despite real second-half progress last season.
Chicago White Sox fans are starting to buzz about the 2026 season, and it’s easy to understand why. The second half of 2025 gave the fan base real reasons for optimism.
Oddsmakers, however, aren’t buying the hype.
The White Sox finished 60–102 in 2025, a 19-win improvement over the disastrous 41–121 campaign in 2024—the most losses in a single season in MLB history. Yes, the bar was set as low as it could possibly be, but a 19-win jump is still significant, even if Chicago failed to avoid the 100-loss mark.
There’s also legitimate optimism within the organization. Manager Will Venable looks like the right long-term fit, and the young core has shown enough growth to believe more improvement is coming.
Another 19-win leap, though, is unrealistic.
Most White Sox fans are probably hoping the team can at least maintain its second-half pace from 2025. A .431 winning percentage over a full season would put Chicago right around 69–70 wins in 2026. That’s the threshold I personally have circled as a successful season.
Vegas doesn’t see it that way.
According to early odds from BetOnline, the White Sox win total for 2026 is set at 63.5. That’s a negligible improvement over last season and essentially projects Chicago as a team flirting with 100 losses once again.
Caesars Sportsbook is slightly more generous, listing the total at 65.5 wins. Even so, that number would still feel like a major letdown for fans who believe this rebuild is beginning to turn a corner.
I do think the White Sox will hit the over on 63.5—and probably 65.5 as well—but it’s likely to be closer than many fans expect.
As I’ve written before this offseason, regression is inevitable. Development is not linear. It’s unrealistic to expect every young player on the roster to take another step forward at the same time.
Chicago still has major questions in the bullpen and a starting rotation that lacks proven depth. Those are areas where GM Chris Getz and the front office could—and should—add before Opening Day. Oddsmakers are clearly factoring in that inexperience and thin margin for error.
This roster is only a few injuries away from running out a lineup heavy on career minor leaguers, which is the risk you take when operating conservatively in free agency.
The over on both 63.5 and 65.5 makes sense. But if that number starts creeping toward 70, I’m staying away. That’s when expectations begin to outpace reality.