The White Sox currently hold the final AL wild-card spot, but the Rangers, Blue Jays and Orioles remain within striking distance with 10 games left.
Now 2-7 over their last nine games, the Chicago White Sox have dropped out of first place in the American League Central for the first time since July 3.
A series loss to the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field this week left the White Sox half a game behind Cleveland with 10 games remaining on the schedule. Thursday presents an opportunity for Chicago to pull even in the division with a win., and because the White Sox hold the tiebreaker, that would effectively put them back in first place.
For the time being, however, it’s worth considering the possibility that Chicago’s path to the postseason in 2026 goes through the American League Wild Card.
That won’t be a cakewalk, either, with just a few games separating a handful of teams. The White Sox currently hold the final wild-card spot in the American League, but even that is far from guaranteed if they continue playing the way they have lately.
Let’s take a look at the current wild card standings and what White Sox fans need to know about how this race could unfold.
At 77-75, the White Sox have a full game separating them from the Texas Rangers, who sit at 76-76. It’s worth noting that the Rangers have the same record as the Houston Astros, with those two teams battling for the AL West title over the final 10 games of the season.
AL West Race Complicates Things
For White Sox fans, that race is worth monitoring closely. Chicago holds the tiebreaker over Texas but loses the tiebreaker to Houston.
Because of their head-to-head results, the Astros have already secured the tiebreaker over the Rangers, which is why Houston currently sits in first place while Texas remains outside the playoff picture.
The White Sox have the advantage over Texas, thus making their one-game function as a two-game advantage over the final 10 regular-season games. But if the roles flip, with Texas taking over the AL West and Houston being relegated to the wild-card race, the Astros would pose a much greater threat to the White Sox because of their tiebreaker advantage.
It’s a bit complex. To simplify things, the best-case scenario for the White Sox is one in which they have the "same fate" as Texas.
The Rangers winning the AL West would be good for the White Sox if Chicago also wins its division. That scenario would give the White Sox the advantage in a tie with Texas and an inside track to the No. 2 seed in the American League.
But if the White Sox ultimately come up short in the AL Central, it would be more beneficial for Houston to win the AL West. Chicago would then have the tiebreaker advantage over Texas in a potential wild-card situation.
Don't Overlook Toronto and Baltimore
Beyond the Rangers, the Toronto Blue Jays sit 1.5 games behind the White Sox, while the Baltimore Orioles are 2.5 games back. Chicago took care of business against Toronto during the regular season and holds the tiebreaker over both teams, but were just 2-4 against Baltimore.
That essentially makes the Blue Jays and Orioles equal threats, even though Toronto is one game closer in the standings.
The picture will become much clearer after this weekend, when every team will have the same number of games remaining and the tight division races in the AL Central and AL West begin to take shape.
But if you’re a White Sox fan hoping to see this team reach the postseason by any means possible, you shouldn’t only be rooting against the Guardians. You should also be rooting against the Rangers, Blue Jays, Orioles and Astros for the home stretch.
Any one of those games could ultimately determine whether the White Sox make the playoffs because, with 10 games remaining, it’s still unclear which team represents their biggest competition.
