Despite months of speculation, the latest betting odds and mock drafts suggest the White Sox' decision with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 MLB Draft has been obvious all along.
The last few months have been filled with a lot of noise and misinformation surrounding what the Chicago White Sox will do with the number one overall pick in the 2026 MLB Draft.
There was a stretch where every report or piece of information seemed to suggest something different. But the closer we get to the All-Star break and the MLB Draft on July 11 in Philadelphia, the more we start to see the obvious choice resurfacing.
Despite the noise, I've always maintained that the White Sox are going to stick with the long-mocked outcome and select UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky with the top pick in the draft. He's the most talented college shortstop the draft has seen in 20 years. He's a do-it-all player with power, speed, and elite defense at a premium position. He has an impressive track record with multiple seasons of elite production. And of the top draft prospects, he's the closest to the big leagues.
When you listen to what GM Chris Getz has described as desirable traits for the White Sox with the number one pick, he describes Cholowsky to a T. We also have to acknowledge the reality that Chris Getz essentially spoiled the pick during a podcast interview months ago before having the comment edited out afterward. It's Roch. It's always been Roch.
And just in case you needed more proof, the latest Las Vegas betting odds and up-to-date mock drafts both support that theory.
On DraftKings Sportsbook this week, Cholowsky was the clear favorite to go number one with -245 odds. The next closest candidate was Georgia Tech catcher Vahn Lackey at +290. For all the hype we've heard about the White Sox deciding between Cholowsky and prep shortstop Grady Emerson, Emerson is now a clear underdog at +500 to land in Chicago.
The most recent mock draft from Baseball America and Carlos Collazo once again has Cholowsky going in the top spot. He believes there's a 60% chance Cholowsky goes number one to the White Sox, with a 30% chance that Emerson is the pick.
“I've talked with more sources recently who think it's more likely to be one of Cholowsky or Emerson rather than Georgia Tech catcher Vahn Lackey,” writes Collazo. “Even putting numbers on this probably overstates the confidence I have, though.”
No mock draft is ever 100% accurate, but there tends to be a pretty good idea of what's going to happen at the top of the draft. We've heard claims that the White Sox are interested in both Emerson and Lackey. It all depends on who you believe, but the one constant has always been Roch Cholowsky. And with Chicago's GM going on the record saying he's not going to overthink this pick and simply wants to take the best player available, I don't think there's much debate about which name Rob Manfred will call on July 11.
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