The current White Sox starting rotation banks on internal growth and prospect arrivals, but regression could be the reason Chicago falls short of expectations in 2026.
With Luis Robert Jr. traded to the New York Mets, there has been a lot of conversation about the makeup of the Chicago White Sox outfield.
And some of that concern is warranted. Chicago arguably has the worst outfield in all of baseball right now. It’s comprised of career minor leaguers who have never had sustained big-league success, defensive specialists, and Andrew Benintendi — who remains an average offensive player, but is a fast-fading defender who might be better served as a designated hitter.
That is not a group to be optimistic about. But it’s far from the only concern I have about the 2026 White Sox.
In fact, it might not even be the biggest weakness on the roster — or the thing that ultimately prevents this team from taking a meaningful step forward.
A few unproven outfielders with upside at the bottom of the lineup may not be completely detrimental to Chicago’s success. If a young core that includes Colson Montgomery, Kyle Teel, and recently signed Japanese superstar Munetaka Murakami continues to hit, the White Sox should score enough runs to win far more than 60 games — their 2025 total.
I have significantly less faith in the pitching staff.
I’m intrigued by the upside and long-term potential of prospects like Noah Schultz, Hagen Smith, and Tanner McDougal. But unless the White Sox make legitimate additions to the rotation in the weeks leading up to spring training, they’ll need at least one — if not multiple — of those prospects to hit the ground running as above-average major league starters in 2026 just to avoid serious regression from the group as a whole.
Before getting into the pitchers currently on the roster, it’s important to focus on what the White Sox are actually losing from the 2025 staff.
Chicago traded Adrian Houser to the Tampa Bay Rays at the deadline. He’s now with the San Francisco Giants after signing a free-agent deal this offseason.
The White Sox also had Martín Pérez in 2025, though he did not pitch a full season due to injury.
Houser and Pérez each appeared in 11 games for Chicago, and both were productive when healthy.
When you combine their numbers — along with the far less glamorous contributions of Aaron Civale across his 13 starts — you end up with 191.1 innings pitched and a 3.66 ERA.
Yes, that’s spread across three partial seasons instead of one full workload. But those numbers are equivalent to a workhorse starting pitcher — one who would have led the White Sox rotation in ERA. That is a significant loss.
The only set-in-stone addition the White Sox have made to the starting rotation this offseason is left-hander Anthony Kay, who returns to Major League Baseball after pitching in Japan.
Kay signed a two-year, $12 million deal and is now, somewhat incredibly, the third-highest-paid player on the roster.
I loved the move at the time. I still fully endorse signing Kay, getting him into the system early, and attempting to follow a similar developmental path to what the organization executed with Erick Fedde a few years ago.
That said, it’s not realistic to expect Kay to replace the production being lost from the rotation.
Projecting 191 innings with a 3.66 ERA would be extremely bullish. FanGraphs currently projects Kay for a 4.25 ERA across 139 innings.
That’s a respectable season — and spoiler alert, it’s the best projection for any White Sox starter right now. But as things stand, Chicago has not replaced what it lost.
Perhaps the organization is banking on major steps forward from young arms at the big-league level, as well as internal reinforcements from the farm system. But advanced metrics suggest more regression than progress from the current rotation.
Shane Smith was an American League All-Star as a rookie and posted a 3.81 ERA.
For much of the season, he was a legitimately good starting pitcher, with a few bumps along the way that could be chalked up to rookie growing pains.
I remain optimistic about Smith’s future. I’m not convinced a major leap or a true No. 1 ceiling is in his range, but I do think he can reasonably replicate his 2025 production moving forward. That alone makes him a pitcher worth building around.
Still, it would be irresponsible not to acknowledge the red flags.
Smith finished in the 13th percentile in hard-hit rate, the 22nd percentile in average exit velocity allowed, and the 13th percentile in chase rate. Those numbers need to improve. It’s also why FanGraphs projects him for a 4.39 ERA in 2026 — a step backward.
The outlook is even shakier for Davis Martin.
Martin has never been flashy, but he’s shown signs of being a dependable back-of-the-rotation starter. In 2025, he posted a respectable 4.10 ERA over 142.2 innings.
Under the hood, however, the numbers tell a different story.
Martin ranked in the bottom 20 percent of pitchers in xBA, average exit velocity, whiff rate, strikeout rate, hard-hit percentage, and pitching run value. His expected ERA sat at 5.13 — more than a full run higher than his actual mark.
That suggests he benefitted from a good amount of luck. Given how much loud contact he allowed and how rarely he missed bats, it’s fair to question whether that success is repeatable in 2026.
The same concerns apply to Sean Burke.
Burke posted a 4.96 expected ERA last season and ranked in the 15th percentile in walk rate, 17th percentile in barrel rate, and 11th percentile in pitching run value.
It’s telling that the White Sox have been hesitant to pencil Burke into the 2026 rotation. Instead, he’s grouped with a cluster of young pitchers competing for jobs — alongside Jonathan Cannon, who struggled badly in 2025 and is now trying to work his way back into the organization’s plans.
Burke may still break camp in the rotation simply because of how little Chicago has added this offseason. But until I see it on the mound, there’s little reason to believe his production will meaningfully improve from what we saw last year.
Regression is a forgotten concept during a rebuild.
It’s easy to assume young players will automatically get better year after year. But development isn’t linear, and not every prospect takes the step forward we expect.
That may be exactly what the White Sox are staring down with their pitching staff.
The need for starting pitching may not look as dire by midseason. By then, top prospects Noah Schultz, Hagen Smith, and Tanner McDougal — along with other intriguing arms like Shane Murphy or Duncan Davitt — could be knocking on the big-league door.
Drew Thorpe should also return at some point in 2026 as he continues his recovery from Tommy John surgery.
All of this puts Chris Getz in a difficult spot.
You don’t want to hand out long-term deals to veteran starters who could block your best young arms. But you also have to acknowledge that the current group isn’t good enough — and could easily regress from its 2025 performance.
If the White Sox want to take a real step forward in the win column this season, they need more production from the rotation. The question is how aggressive you get in free agency when you believe reinforcements are coming in the months ahead.
That’s the calculus facing the White Sox front office right now.
It’s also why I’ve consistently advocated for a signing like Zack Littell — a proven, reliable starting pitcher with experience working out of the bullpen if roster flexibility becomes necessary.
For that same reason, Noah Schultz and Hagen Smith remain the most important players in the organization’s 2026 outlook.
If they don’t arrive early and contribute meaningfully to the rotation, the current group of starters represents a far more serious concern than the outfield — and one that isn’t being discussed nearly enough.