Shane Murphy was the most productive pitcher in minor league baseball last season, making him an obvious choice to be protected on the White Sox 40-man roster.
Less than 24 hours from now, decision time arrives. The Chicago White Sox—and 29 other teams across Major League Baseball—will need to make some tough choices, and potentially some painful cuts.
By 3 p.m. ET on Tuesday, November 18, clubs must add eligible prospects to their 40-man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft. Any eligible player left unprotected is fair game and could be gone for good. As White Sox fans learned with Shane Smith’s breakout rookie season (Smith was left unprotected by Milwaukee and was taken in the Rule 5 Draft), failing to protect the right guy can be costly.
For some teams, this process is a breeze.
The Baltimore Orioles and Milwaukee Brewers don’t have a single Top 30 prospect eligible for the Rule 5 Draft. The Miami Marlins have only one—and he’s a Top 100 catcher who’s a lock to be protected. That makes these decisions simple, and far less risky.
But the Chicago White Sox? A team with deep young pitching and seven Top 30 prospects at risk? That’s where the math gets messy.
The Sox currently have 35 players on their 40-man, leaving some wiggle room, but not much. And oddly enough, the move being labeled as the “most difficult” decision for Chris Getz and the front office is, in my eyes, the most cut-and-dry—and it doesn’t even involve a Top 30 prospect.
MLB.com recently named left-hander Shane Murphy as the organization’s “toughest Rule 5 decision.”
“The younger brother of former big league pitcher Patrick Murphy, Shane led the Minors in WHIP (0.89) and ERA (1.66) while compiling a .199 average-against and a 104/25 K/BB ratio in 135 1/3 innings while advancing from High-A to Triple-A,” Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis wrote. “The 14th-rounder in 2022 out of Chandler-Gilbert (Ariz.) CC stands out more with his performance than his stuff, working with a fastball that sits just below 90 mph (albeit with good carry) and a mid-80s changeup as his primary secondary pitch.”
What more can I say?
Murphy isn’t cracking top prospect lists because of his age and arsenal. He’ll be 25 on Opening Day and doesn’t have the type of swing-and-miss stuff that gets prospect evaluators buzzing.
But production is production—and Murphy was the most productive pitcher in minor-league baseball last season.
The White Sox still have a lot to sort out in their 2026 rotation. Davis Martin and Shane Smith should have spots, but even someone as talented as Sean Burke is still “competing for a job,” according to Getz. Chicago may sign one or more veteran starters. They could try to replicate their 2025 success by taking another swing on a Rule 5 pick. And there’s always a chance a young arm forces his way into the picture in the spring.
That’s where Murphy should come in.
With how dominant he was in 2025, the Sox would be foolish not to put him on the 40-man and see what he looks like in big-league camp. Even if he’s not part of the Opening Day rotation, there’s a spot for him in Triple-A Charlotte—and plenty of upside to explore. Was last season a mirage? Or the beginning of a bright future?
Whenever I’m stuck on a tough decision, I ask myself one simple, but admittedly nuanced question: What would I regret more?
Maybe the White Sox should do the same.
If they protect Murphy, sure—there’s a chance he comes back to earth in 2026 and never becomes a productive big-league arm. And because he takes up a roster spot, it could force the Sox to DFA someone like Bryan Hudson, Yoendrys Gómez, or a young arm trending down like Jairo Iriarte.
But if they leave Murphy unprotected, he gets taken in the Rule 5, and he immediately becomes a productive 25-year-old rookie starter somewhere else…well, imagine how sick the Sox will feel. They’d have had a potential rotation anchor — a left-handed one at that — sitting in their system, and let him walk for free.
The decision is clear when it's put in that "worst case scenario" context.
Shane Murphy has too much potential—and too much proven production—to expose to the Rule 5 Draft. And that’s exactly why a pitching-thin team would scoop him up in a heartbeat.
Chicago needs to make sure he’s on the 40-man roster. Protect him tomorrow, and don’t look back.