A look at FanGraphs’ early projections for Munetaka Murakami’s 2026 season with the Chicago White Sox.
Chicago White Sox fans — and fans of the Tokyo Yakult Swallows back in Japan — are waiting with great anticipation to see what Munetaka “Mune” Murakami will do in Major League Baseball as a rookie.
Across the industry, Murakami remains something of a mystery.
The power profile is unprecedented. He’s Japan’s single-season home run king, and his raw power is effortless — the kind that should translate anywhere in the world. But there are fair questions, too. Can he consistently make contact against elite velocity? Will he be overmatched by MLB pitching? Can he settle into a defensive position? And why was his production trending downward late in his NPB career?
Those uncertainties cooled what many expected to be a massive long-term market. Instead, Murakami’s price came back down to earth, allowing the White Sox to swoop in with a two-year, $34 million deal.
It’s a near-perfect fit for both sides.
In Chicago, Murakami will be given real runway. He’ll play regularly. He’ll be allowed to fail, adjust, and learn — without the pressure of a World Series-or-bust contender demanding immediate production in 2026. Over two seasons, Murakami gets the chance to answer every question about his game at the highest level.
Then he’ll hit free agency again at age 27.
Whether that ends with a long-term deal on the South Side or a megacontract elsewhere, Murakami is betting on himself. And the White Sox, meanwhile, land a player who energizes the fan base, fits seamlessly with the young core, and makes White Sox baseball must-see TV in 2026.
That’s a financial win off the field — and one that could translate to plenty of wins on it.
Just because Murakami can take his lumps early doesn’t mean he will. And if you want a baseline for what to expect, the current Steamer projections via FanGraphs paint a compelling picture.
FanGraphs projects Murakami to slash .231/.333/.458 in 2026, good for a .791 OPS and 118 wRC+. They have him hitting 30 home runs, driving in 75 runs, and stealing nine bases.
The patience jumps off the page. A projected 12.6% walk rate ranks ninth among projections for qualified hitters — elite territory, right in line with what the model projects for stars like Yordan Álvarez and Bryce Harper.
The swing-and-miss, however, is ugly. A projected 28.7% strikeout rate would be among the worst in baseball, only slightly better than players like Eugenio Suárez, who punched out 196 times last season.
That’s not ideal — but Suárez is also a reminder that strikeouts don’t preclude impact. He finished 2025 with 49 home runs and 118 RBIs, despite living near the top of the strikeout leaderboard.
To me, Steamer may actually be a bit conservative with Murakami’s power. If he’s making enough contact to hit .231 while playing 81 games at Rate Field — a well-known hitter’s park with a friendly porch for lefties — eclipsing 30 home runs feels well within reach.
And even if he lands right at that number, it’s a resounding success for Chicago at this price point.
Murakami is also the type of player who could surge late — improving over the second half as he adjusts, and then taking another leap in his second MLB season. That’s a big reason for the optimism surrounding this signing.
When you factor in ticket sales, international attention, endorsements, and merchandise revenue, the contract looks almost negligible. The upside, meanwhile, is enormous.
Even conservative models tell the same story. Steamer projects only three MLB players to reach 40 home runs in 2026 — with the league leader at 43 — yet still comfortably has Murakami clearing the 30-homer mark while driving in runs.
That’s a very good sign.
And for the White Sox, it might be the beginning of something special.