Noah Schultz Is the White Sox Player Ready for a 2026 Breakout

There is more legitimate optimism surrounding the Chicago White Sox entering the 2026 season than at any point in recent years. A strong second half, a young core beginning to establish itself, and another wave of prospects nearing the majors have given the organization a clearer sense of direction.

In the middle of that momentum sits Noah Schultz — still widely regarded as one of the most talented arms in the system, yet discussed with slightly less certainty than he was a year ago.

Maybe it’s because he endured a down season in 2025. Maybe it’s because manager Will Venable has already said he won’t break camp with the team.

Regardless, the shift is understandable. Schultz’s 2025, disrupted by injury and marked by command inconsistency, interrupted what had been a rapid ascent. But the broader profile remains largely unchanged. When you zoom out and place his development in league-wide context, the ingredients that once made him one of the most dominant young pitchers in the minors are still present.

Which is why Schultz is my favorite breakout candidate for the 2026 White Sox and is, in my opinion, being seriously overlooked as we enter a new era of White Sox baseball.

Schultz’s physical profile alone separates him. At 6-foot-10 and 240 pounds, he delivers a mid-to-upper-90s fastball from a difficult angle and pairs it with a 70-grade slider that ranks among the most effective breaking balls in the minor leagues.

Evaluators have long noted how unusual that combination of size, deception, and breaking-ball quality is. His prospect report captures it clearly.

“His size, arm slot and slider create persistent comparisons to Randy Johnson, but Schultz has more polish at the same stage than the Hall of Famer did, even if he needs to refine the rest of his repertoire,” reads MLB Pipeline.

Those comparisons speak less to expectation and more to rarity. Pitchers built like this, with that type of swing-and-miss weapon, simply do not come around often. And it’s not something that can be taught, even by the best pitching labs in the sport.

The performance supported the scouting. As an 18-year-old in Low-A Kannapolis, Schultz posted a 1.33 ERA with a 0.85 WHIP and 12.7 strikeouts per nine innings across 10 starts.

In 2024, at just 19 years old, he reached Double-A Birmingham and recorded a 1.48 ERA over 16 starts.

The age-to-level component is significant. Most 19-year-old pitchers are still developing in A-ball. Few reach Double-A, and fewer still control the league the way Schultz did. Beyond the ERA, he struck out 29.4 percent of hitters, held opponents to a .202 average, and generated ground balls at a 58.5 percent clip.

Nearly two-thirds of plate appearances ended in either a strikeout or a ground ball.

That blend of swing-and-miss and contact suppression is typically associated with established major league aces, not teenagers navigating advanced competition. At that stage of his development, Schultz was not simply the White Sox’ top pitching prospect; he was widely viewed as the premier left-handed pitching prospect in the sport.

The step back in 2025, then, naturally drew attention. Across two levels, Schultz posted a 4.68 ERA, and his time in Triple-A Charlotte was particularly rough (9.37 ERA). The walk rate jumped from five percent in his first two professional seasons to 14 percent.

For evaluators already wary of the long-term command consistency of extremely tall pitchers, that spike raised legitimate questions.

But there were a lot of factors at play.

Schultz dealt with patella tendinitis in his right knee for much of the 2025 season, resulting in multiple injured list stints and ultimately a shutdown in September. For a pitcher whose delivery relies heavily on lower-half stability and precise timing, even minor disruptions can have cascading effects.

He acknowledged as much when discussing his mechanics in an interview with Chuck Garfien on the White Sox podcast this week.

“I think last year they got a little long with the long limbs that I have,” said Schultz of his mechanics. “I’ve gotta be pretty compact with everything. The longer limbs you are, if you’re off by a hair, then everything gets even more off and not as consistent.”

“I think I was really good with that for a while. And some starts and some innings last year you could tell when I’d be super locked in and then have a four pitch walk.”

Schultz noted that the knee discomfort dates back to a significant growth spurt more than eight years ago. It just “snuck up on him” in 2025 as he continued adding weight to fill out his frame.

While Schultz has been reluctant to blame his inconsistent season on health alone, the correlation between compromised lower-half stability and a dramatic rise in his walk rate is difficult to ignore. Prior to 2025, Schultz’s unusually low walk rate was one of the most encouraging indicators in his profile, particularly given his size.

And in my opinion, a demonstrated history of elite body control does not disappear after one outlier season. We should soon see him return to his career norm.

Reports out of spring training suggest Schultz is fully healthy following an offseason focused on physical therapy and mechanical simplification. White Sox senior advisor to pitching Brian Bannister said Schultz looks “much stronger” on his plant leg.

If that means the command stabilizes closer to its earlier baseline, the rest of the profile remains intact. The fastball-slider combination will continue to miss bats, and the development of his changeup will be central to his success against right-handed hitters at the highest level.

There is every reason to believe the version of Schultz seen in 2024 is more representative than the one that labored through 2025.

Which brings us to 2026.

Even with Schultz beginning the regular season in Charlotte, I think he forces the issue at some point. The organization has been deliberate with his workload, but the talent has never been in question. If the strike-throwing trends back toward his earlier baseline, the overall package again resembles that of a high-impact starter.

I’ll plant my flag firmly and say that he will make his MLB debut before the All-Star break, at which point we’ll see a 22-year-old pitcher dominate some of the best hitters in the game.

There will be normal adjustment periods. Young pitchers rarely arrive without turbulence. But the broader evaluation should weigh his multi-year dominance more heavily than one injury-influenced season. I think 2025 proves to be more of a stress test, and the version of Noah Schultz that emerges will be better off for it.

A skill set like his is just hard to come by, and I’ve been really impressed with his mental fortitude and the clear and deliberate plan the White Sox seem to have in place for his development.

That’s going to pay dividends in 2026. And when it does, it will also have major implications for Chicago’s competitive timeline moving forward.