A concerning forearm injury now threatens to derail Tanner McDougal’s rapid rise, with the White Sox prospect facing the possibility of missing most or all of the 2026 season.
Last week, there was an injury scare for Chicago White Sox pitching prospect Tanner McDougal, who left his weekend start in the top of the fourth inning and appeared frustrated while talking with trainers.
As it turned out, McDougal was simply being pulled from the game for precautionary reasons after tweaking his lower body while taking an awkward step off the mound. The White Sox were thankful to have avoided anything serious, and McDougal was expected to stay on schedule for his next start.
Just last weekend, I highlighted how moments like that show the fragility of pitching development. The health of young pitchers always comes first, especially because of how much a young arm can be affected by an injury that forces them to miss significant time.
Unfortunately, the nightmare scenario came for Tanner McDougal just one start later.
On Wednesday, April 29, he was pulled from his outing after just one inning, this time leaving with a flexor strain and right forearm tightness in his throwing arm. McDougal was placed on the injured list on Thursday, and the current outlook is really concerning for his future.
Obviously, anytime you hear about a forearm issue with a starting pitcher, the mind immediately goes to a potential elbow surgery. McDougal is 23 years old. He has a 3.00 ERA in Triple-A Charlotte, and he's knocking on the door of making his MLB debut. The thought of Tommy John surgery ending his 2026 season and possibly sidelining him for a majority of 2027 is career-altering and devastating.
Even if it’s not Tommy John, though, McDougal can still be expected to miss a good chunk of time, and the long-term outlook remains pretty dreary.
Back in 2020, there was a study published by Christopher Ahmad, MD, a professor of clinical orthopedic surgery at Columbia University. The study measured a five-year period and ultimately determined that 20 percent of pitchers diagnosed with a flexor strain undergo Tommy John surgery within a calendar year. Even pitchers with a flexor strain diagnosis who don’t get Tommy John still spent an average of 117 days on the injured list.
117 days from today puts us right at the end of August. And the Knights would only have about three weeks left on their schedule.
Perhaps I’m jumping to conclusions too soon. There could always be more information that comes out as McDougal undergoes further evaluation and testing in the coming days. But as of now, I think White Sox fans need to prepare themselves for a world in which McDougal may be shut down for the rest of the 2026 season, or at least the vast majority of it.
It’s a devastating blow. If McDougal were fully healthy, I’d expect him to be on the big league roster within the next month. He’s been very impressive over his first 24 innings pitched this season, and the Sox might have a spot in the rotation opening soon if Anthony Kay can’t figure things out.
But now, we may be talking about a lost season and another year where he has to prove himself in order to break through in 2027.