As Opening Day approaches, Rule 5 picks Jedixson Paez and Alexander Alberto are running out of time to prove they deserve a spot in the White Sox bullpen.
We're now less than three weeks away from MLB Opening Day in 2026, which means players still on the bubble of their respective rosters are running out of time to prove they belong in the big leagues.
Up to this point, it hasn't been a particularly promising spring for the Rule 5 draft picks the Chicago White Sox acquired back in December.
That stands in stark contrast to how things unfolded a year ago.
The White Sox did about as well as you can possibly do in the Rule 5 draft during the 2025 season. Starting pitcher Shane Smith went on to make the American League All-Star team, while right-hander Mike Vasil posted a 2.50 ERA across more than 100 innings of work as a valuable swingman.
Vasil was actually a late waiver claim right before the regular season began, but Smith earned his opportunity the old-fashioned way — by dominating in spring training. Smith made four starts during Cactus League play in 2025, totaling 10.2 innings with a 3.38 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP. That performance earned him a spot in the starting rotation, and the rest is history.
Of course, spring training numbers aren't always a reliable indicator of future success. Whether positive or negative, they can be misleading.
But for a Rule 5 pick fighting to secure a spot on the active roster, a rough spring makes it very difficult for a team to justify keeping you around. More often than not, Rule 5 selections are eventually returned to their original organization.
That appears to be the direction things may be trending for the White Sox this year with right-handers Jedixson Paez and Alexander Alberto.
Paez was the second overall selection in the Rule 5 draft and is widely viewed as a promising pitching prospect. Many organizations believe he could eventually develop into a starting pitcher at the Major League level.
I'm personally a believer in the profile and would love to see him become part of the White Sox organization long-term. He's already considered a top-20 prospect in the system. However, the challenge with Paez was apparent from the moment he was selected.
Drafting a 22-year-old right-hander who has never pitched above High-A — and who doesn't rely on overpowering stuff — creates a difficult developmental path. Even at the time of the selection, it was fair to question how the White Sox could realistically get him ready to compete at the big league level.
That concern remains as spring training reaches its midpoint.
In his two Cactus League appearances, Paez has thrown just 2.1 innings while allowing six runs on six hits. That translates to a 23.14 ERA and a 3.00 WHIP.
Alberto, on the other hand, has the type of raw stuff that could translate to the big leagues more quickly.
The 24-year-old features a fastball that can reach triple digits and relies on a two-pitch mix — but both offerings grade as plus pitches. In theory, that type of profile would be easier for the White Sox to stash in the back of the bullpen while keeping him in the organization.
Unfortunately, the results haven't been particularly encouraging for Alberto this spring either.
Across four outings, he has thrown four innings while allowing seven hits, three runs, and two walks, while striking out four. That line adds up to a 6.75 ERA and a 2.25 WHIP.
With neither pitcher breaking through the way Smith did last spring, the final spot in the White Sox bullpen suddenly looks wide open.
Seven of the eight bullpen spots already feel accounted for. Seranthony Domínguez, Grant Taylor, Jordan Leasure, Jordan Hicks, Mike Vasil, Sean Newcomb, and Tyler Gilbert should all be expected to make the Opening Day roster.
That leaves one remaining spot — and at this point, neither Rule 5 pick has done enough to firmly claim it.
In many ways, this is simply the reality of the Rule 5 draft.
Many casual White Sox fans probably became familiar with the Rule 5 process while watching Shane Smith pitch during the 2025 season. But the organization has actually made several Rule 5 selections in recent years that didn't leave much of a lasting impression because they ultimately didn't stick.
In 2023, Chicago selected left-hander Shane Drohan from the Boston Red Sox before returning him to Boston that June. In 2022, the White Sox selected right-hander Nick Avila from the San Francisco Giants but returned him before the season began.
And back in 2018, the White Sox selected right-hander Jordan Romano from the Toronto Blue Jays before trading him to the Texas Rangers for cash considerations. By 2022, Romano had developed into an All-Star closer in Toronto.
That unpredictability is part of what makes the Rule 5 draft both intriguing and difficult.
The White Sox deserve credit for continuing to take swings on upside. But unless something changes quickly over the final weeks of spring training, this year's Rule 5 selections may ultimately follow a far more common path.