HOMESTEAD, Fla. -- Three drivers remain in the hunt for the NASCAR Cup Series championship with a clear favorite among them in Sunday's season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

Kyle Larson leads Christopher Bell by 67 points and Denny Hamlin by 70 points.

Since every driver gets at least one point for starting and can earn as many as 76 points in a race (55 for winning, 10 per stage win and one for running the fastest lap), Bell and Hamlin have one thing to do to win the championship:

Bell must earn at least 69 points and Hamlin must earn at least 72. Finishing second won't cut it, with a maximum of 56 (35 for finishing second overall + the other bonuses). 

Bell must also earn at least 14 stage points to know he has a chance at the championship in the final stage. That's equivalent to two fourth-place stage finishes, first and seventh in the stages, second and sixth or third and fifth in the stages.

Earning at least 13 stage points and getting the extra point for the fastest lap would also earn get him to 69 points but that's not as certain. That's a combination of finishing first and eighth, second and seventh, third and sixth, or fourth and fifth in the stages.

Hamlin must also earn at least 17 stage points. That's a combination of finishing first and fourth or second and third in the stages. If he earned the fastest lap bonus, he needs 16, which is finishing first and fifth, second and fourth or two third-place stage finishes.

All of that math, yet Kyle Larson could put the championship away very quickly and easily.

Larson needs just nine points to clinch the championship. That's a 28th-place finish with no stage points, 29th with a stage point, 30th with two stage points, 31st with three, 32nd with four, 33rd with five, 34th with six, 35th with seven, or finishing 36th-40th with eight.

Larson could also clinch the championship as easily as finishing ahead of Bell and Hamlin in the first stage.

Since Larson needs a total of eight stage points, he could clinch the title by finishing third or better in the first stage.

If Bell and Larson both finish inside the top-10 in the first stage, Bell must finish at least three spots ahead of Larson. For example, if Bell were to win the stage and Larson finishes fourth, Larson would need to finish 36th-40th. If there are five DNFs and Larson finishes fourth or better in the first stage, he clinches the title.

Larson could also eliminate Hamlin from championship contention with a finish of sixth or better in the first stage or a total of five stage points.

Here's a breakdown of the fewest points that Larson could earn and still win the title. 

This season, Kyle Larson has earned at least eight stage points in 20 of the 36 races. His strong suit has been intermediates, like Homestead-Miami Speedway. 

In the NextGen era at the track, he has averaged 40.25 points per race with two wins to his name -- in 2022 and 2025. 

However, Larson can be checkers or wreckers when he tries to find the edge at the 1.5-mile track. In 2023, he crashed after leading 96 of 267 laps and finished 34th. Two years later, when he won in 2025, he struggled with keeping the car out of the wall. 

In between, he finished 13th with 24 points -- meaning he scored no stage points that day when he was trying to secure his place in the championship fight. 

In this era, that's been the only weak point for him at the track, compared to what he needs to do Sunday.

Larson spoke Thursday with calmness. The last time he ran a race like this was 2022 when he was out of championship contention and the pressure was off of him.

This year, the pressure isn't totally off of him but it is much less than other years when Homestead-Miami has been in the Chase. That could spell an early end for Bell and Hamlin. 

In the 78-year history of the NASCAR Cup Series, the season's champion has won the season finale race in 17 of those years.

With the elimination format that made the final race a tie among the championship contenders from 2014 to 2025, the champion won the finale 10 of those 12 years. The only two years where they didn't were in 2023 when champion Ryan Blaney finished second to Ross Chastain and in 2025 when champion Kyle Larson finished third to Blaney. 

Before the elimination format, the champion often came into the season finale with a certain points lead that only required them to finish in a certain position. As a result, the champion only won the season finale seven times in the 65 Cup seasons before 2014:

Stewart was the only champion to win the season finale with the Chase in one of its first iterations. He won in the first year of the 10-race, top-10 in points + two wildcards format. 

Gordon was the only champion to win the season finale in the series' modern era, which began in 1972.