Is This Denny Hamlin's Championship to Lose?

CHARLOTTE, N.C. — If 2026 isn't Denny Hamlin's year to win the NASCAR Cup Series championship, when will it ever be?

After ending the regular season with the points lead for the first time in his 21-year Cup Series career, Hamlin enters the Chase with tracks that stack up perfectly for him.

Yet, he has to face 10 races encompassing 3,175 laps, 3,742 miles and 30 opportunities to gain or lose points on almost every oval track type.

Hamlin is no stranger to this. 

"Over the course of a season, you can start to draw a picture. I think that luck is a thing because in racing usually in a one versus one sport, your competition makes a mistake, you capitalize on you're opposing team. In NASCAR, your competition makes a mistake and it can end up costing you your day. So, there's absolutely an element of luck in our sport," Hamlin said.

Across all national series, Hamlin has raced under every points format NASCAR has implemented in the Modern Era (1972-present) and been in contention for the championship in each format.

Without a NASCAR championship to his name, Hamlin has also figured out how to lose with every format. However, he has a head start with the new format.

“It is a little different this time around because we have stages and we have more points for winning than the last time we had the Chase. I do think that there's an opportunity for drivers to make up more points than we had in the past. So, generally, I don't know that my tenure and experience is necessarily an advantage other than when we see when we go from track to track. I've just got a lot of starts at each one of these tracks," Hamlin said.

Grabbing the No. 1 seed with this year's format means Hamlin will start the Chase with a 25-point lead over the next-closest driver.

Hamlin is starting in the best position he has ever been in to let all the cards play in his favor to finally win a Cup championship.

“I've always said I don't believe in luck but I don't know. After 20 years, I definitely believe that it's part of motorsports. I would say, though, generally speaking, there's going to be less luck involved with whoever wins this championship because the sample size is bigger," Hamlin said.

Hamlin's last win was over two months ago at Pocono Raceway in June. However, in the 10 races since then, he has had eight finishes of 12th or better, including five top-five finishes.

“I think so. But you need the results to get fully back to a three-in-a-row type of confidence. So, that was a good part of the schedule for us, and then we went to tracks that we knew that, I think it was San Diego or something that, right after, I was like, "Okay, well, it's going to end now." I just think that confidence is still high because even on our mediocre days, we're still doing a really good job of running in the top five," Hamlin said. 

Hamlin's age is proven valuable and could make him the oldest NASCAR Cup Series champion of all-time (45 years, 11 months and 21 days) by four days (Bobby Allison: 45 years, 11 months and 17 days). However, he isn't leaning solely on that to hoist the Cup.

“It's tough because they're all fast," Hamlin said. "Even the young guys now have enough experience to contend. I would've said early on in the career, like William Byron, man, he has all the things but he's just not experienced enough. But now he's got that and there's several guys that have just got enough pedigree and enough experience. Even though I've got 40 starts at a track, their 15 to 20 is enough."

"I don't know if my age is going to be as big of an advantage it was before."

Age has caught up to Hamlin, who has been nursing a shoulder injury that has bothered him "a little bit more over the last month." Inside the car, however, it hasn't slowed his quest for the Cup even if it may slow how high he could hoist it in November.

Hamlin is taking a risk. He believes it's worth it for "probably" his best chance at a Cup title.

“There's been years where we've been really fast versus the field, things like that but I've always known it's about that one race and are you good at that one racetrack on a green-white-checkered finish, right? I think that it's a little different this time around, so I'm starting a little bit ahead, not as much ahead as I should be. But I'm a little bit ahead and I've got enough races to prove that we're the best," Hamlin said.

Hamlin sees his Toyota manufacturer-mates as his closest competition. Four of them start in five of the other six elusive starting spots for the Chase. 

The other spot is held by Ryan Blaney, who starts second and has been a stage points merchant this season.

“It's going to come down to first qualifying, then it's the stages, right? So, there for a while during the summer when we had a lot of stage points, it's 'cause we were qualifying really well. And I do think that we just went through what I believe was our roughest patch of tracks and we still have been really, really, good. So, if we can just keep our good finishes going, we're going to continue to be good on the metric. We're going to continue to qualify well... That’s going to lead to stage points," Hamlin said.

Unlike last year, nine weeks of work suddenly won't mean anything in week 10. That is just the way Hamlin likes it.

“I think now it's like the bigger body of work typically bodes well for Denny Hamlin. It just always has. You give me more of a sample size and we're going to prove that we're the best over a long period of time. I think that that's what our fans need to focus on is that just this is a marathon, not a sprint," he said.

Even if Hamlin somehow doesn't win his first championship this year, he has at least another year to win one. 

Even if he doesn't win one then, he'll retire as a lock for the NASCAR Hall of Fame with top-10-of-all-time statistics -- and personal satisfaction.

"What matters to me is my dad saw me when I was at my absolute best, and that was at Phoenix last year," he said.

As far as who his biggest competitors are in the Chase, Hamlin is waiting until halfway to determine that based on his experience and what lies ahead.

“There's some experience to be had there with myself and (Joey) Logano is the only one that's been through it, to know that this is a long, long journey we're about to go on," Hamlin said. “I talked to 23XI about that and I addressed it in their meeting on Monday that this is a long way. You cannot get caught up in one bad week or one bad stage. This is a marathon. It's almost a third of the season so there's plenty of time."

The time will start ticking down this Sunday with the Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway.