Larson Could Be First in 23 Years to Clinch NASCAR Cup Title Early

RIDGEWAY, Va. — Kyle Larson could become the first NASCAR Cup Series driver since Matt Kenseth in 2003 to clinch the championship early.

Going into the penultimate race of the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season, Larson holds a lead of 73 points over Denny Hamlin, 74 over Christopher Bell, 79 over Chase Briscoe, 100 over Joey Logano, 107 over Ryan Blaney and 126 over Tyler Reddick.

Since a driver can earn between one point and 76 points in one race, the most points a driver can make up in one race is 75. 

All Larson has to do to clinch the Cup is gain two points on Hamlin and one on Bell. He'd also have to make sure Briscoe makes up three points or less, Logano makes up 25 points or less, Blaney makes up 32 points or less and Reddick makes up 51 points or less.

With two Chase wins to Larson's three, Briscoe is the only driver who could win the championship on a tiebreaker. The tiebreaker is determined by a driver's overall finishes in the Chase races, with wins, second-place finishes, third-place finishes, etc.

If Briscoe won the final two races and tied Larson for the Cup, he'd win it no matter what with (what would be) four Chase wins for him to Larson's three.

However, Briscoe would have to win both of the remaining races to win in a tie. Larson's best finish outside of the wins is second (twice), while Briscoe's best is fourth.

Bell, Logano and Reddick who each have one Chase win. However, Bell's best non-winning finish is one second-place finish, Logano's best is third and Reddick's best is third.

With no wins in the Chase, Blaney and Hamlin have no chance at winning the tiebreaker even if they win both of the final two races.

The Cup championship has never been clinched early under any format of the Chase, which started after Kenseth clinched the championship early in 2003. 

The Chase, featuring a points reset after the 26th race and points counted up and added to the reset standings, was in existence from 2004 to 2013. NASCAR switched to an elimination-style format, later dubbed the "playoffs", in 2014, that guaranteed a tie for the championship in the final race every year.

The format, which also featured a total of four resets in the final 10 races, was widely panned for going against the spirit of NASCAR and the dam of legitimacy as it pertains to how the sport has viewed the best driver in a season vs. who the champion became.

In 2025, Corey Heim nearly lost the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series championship on a late-race restart in the finale after winning 11 of 24 races and earning the most points all season. The next night, Connor Zilisch lost the NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series championship after running third in the finale after setting a single-season record and earning the most points all season. 

Ironically, the format drew ire a day after that for Denny Hamlin losing the Cup title due to a late-race caution – despite Hamlin not earning the most points all season. 

This season, Hamlin has earned the most points all season (1,295) while Larson ranks fourth (1,120). However, the format has been more well-regarded for offering a wider sample size to account for circumstances a team can and can't control in races.

The ninth race in this postseason's sample size will see Hamlin starting on the pole and Larson starting third.