Why Tyler Reddick's 2026 Dominance is Historic But Not Surprising

DARLINGTON, S.C. — Tyler Reddick ended up in victory lane again when the NASCAR Cup Series visited Darlington Raceway and the reasons behind his historic success are not surprising when you look at the numbers.

Reddick picked up his fourth win of the season, just six races in. Some may think this is too good to be true with his superstar owner, Michael Jordan in the spotlight over the offseason for 23XI Racing's successes but the numbers show this was coming for the seventh-year Cup driver.

Reddick first won at Daytona and EchoPark, which certainly have a high luck factor. However, he was among the top NextGen drafting track points earners and had two top-five finishes in the last three EchoPark races preceding the one he won.

Winning at Circuit of the Americas lived up to how he topped almost every major category going into the weekend. Darlington was no different as, among drivers winless at the track, he topped many of the categories with the help of five top-five finishes in eight prior NextGen races there.

Like Atlanta, recent history favored Reddick. In 2025, he was part of a four-way battle for the win at COTA could've won both Darlington races. Only a late-race caution while leading late in the spring, and not finding a way by Chase Briscoe despite being faster in the fall, kept him from not winning sooner at the track.

Reddick played to his strengths all the way to the history book, becoming the third driver to ever win four of the first six races in a Cup season. 

Dale Earnhardt in 1987 presents a blueprint for a warpath for Reddick. Earnhardt's four wins in the first six races grew to six wins in the first eight and 11 in the first 22. He entered the 23rd race of the season with a points lead equal to four races worth of points, which allowed him to clinch the title just by starting the 27th race.

That scenario isn't possible under the current format. However, 11 wins, 21 top-five finishes, 24 top-10s, an average finish of 5.9 and leading 37% of the laps he completed (3,357 of the 9,043 laps) is still something that can be strived for.

The second-place man to Earnhardt in 1987, Bill Elliott had a 1992 season that was more true to the nature of NASCAR.

Elliott won four in a row but didn't take the points lead because of it because the points format at the time. In fact, he didn't grab the points lead until the 18th race of the 29-race season and he lost it heading into the finale because of four finishes of 26th or worse down the stretch. 

As any NASCAR history buff knows, that skid kept him out of winning a close title fight. It shows that while Reddick has been awesome, his season could turn intimidating.

Reddick ranked first, 10th, eighth and first and finished first, eighth, 13th and first at the last four tracks. The next four put him 20th (Martinsville), 17th (Bristol), 14th (Kansas) and 18th (Talladega), according to statistician Anthony Reinhard of StatButler.

If Reddick can use 23XI's improved speed to finish better than he ranks, the next stretch holds three intermediates (Texas, Charlotte, Chicagoland), three road courses (Watkins Glen, Sonoma, San Diego) and two tracks he has won at before (Michigan, Atlanta). Even at the other tracks, Pocono and Nashville, he ranks among the top-10 for points earned in the NextGen era.

By then, it'll be down to six races until the Chase, including Richmond, Daytona and Indianapolis where he has ran well. New Hampshire has also held some good results for him that could balance out some poorer results at Iowa and North Wilkesboro.

The path to the regular season championship looks very good for Reddick and history favors him. In the last nine seasons, the points leader at this point went on to win the regular-season championship in five of the last eight seasons (denoted in bold): 

Can anyone catch Reddick? Certainly. 

Ryan Blaney

Ryan Blaney has had a chance to win almost every race so far this season but has just one win on the season and even lost points in the race he won.

Blaney lost as many as 54 points due to his woes and sliding from where he ran in some races. If the No. 12 team can clean up their issues and execute to capitalize on any possible bad days Reddick's team may have, they'll eat up the gap if he can live up to his history at strong tracks like Martinsville, Bristol and Texas.

Denny Hamlin

Denny Hamlin has Martinsville, Bristol and Kansas coming up, which are all great tracks for him. He's 122 points behind Reddick but could cut away at a good chunk of that lead if Hamlin can earn stage points and win at least once. 

History favors Reddick's chances at winning the regular season championship but one thing is for sure, it will take an epic collapse for him to miss the Chase – so you can bank on the 23XI Racing driver being a lock for the postseason. 

A peek at the postseason hunt

Behind Reddick, Ryan Blaney leads third-place Bubba Wallace by 25 points. Wallace is two points ahead of Denny Hamlin, 11 ahead of Chase Elliott, 14 ahead of William Byron, 17 ahead of Chris Buescher, 23 ahead of Brad Keselowski and Christopher Bell each, 29 ahead of Kyle Larson, 32 ahead of Ty Gibbs and 51 ahead of Ryan Preece. 

First has the biggest advantage, with a 25-point gap to second-place. Then, second-place has 10 points over third and third has five points over fourth. The subsequent Chase positions are separated by five points each. 

Further down the standings, 2025 Chasers Austin Cindric and Chase Briscoe are on the rise but are still 30 and 31 points below the cutline, respectively. For the championship, they sit 121 and 122 points behind the No. 2 seed. 

Next: Martinsville Speedway; March 29, 3 p.m. ET; FS1, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio Channel 90, Motor Racing Network affiliates. 

Last year's winners at Martinsville: Denny Hamlin (Spring), William Byron (Fall).