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Jul 16, 2026 1:00 AM

Ryan Blaney broke into Denny Hamlin and Tyler Reddick's season-long fight with a win at EchoPark Speedway but how much closer can he get before the Chase for the NASCAR Cup starts in six races?

HAMPTON, Ga. — And just like that, Ryan Blaney is a serious threat for the regular season championship in the NASCAR Cup Series. 

In the wee Monday morning hours, Blaney made a huge statement -- winning the Quaker State 400 at EchoPark Speedway Atlanta in dominant fashion despite a drastic change in track conditions between the two stages he won and the 171 laps he led.

Blaney's No. 12 Ford was dominant, leading 263 of the 405 miles run in drafting track domination akin to NASCAR's heyday. Back in 2005, Jeff Gordon led 369.74 of the 500 miles run in that April's Talladega Superspeedway race and Tony Stewart led 377.5 of the 400 miles in that July's Pepsi 400 at Daytona International Speedway.

Classic domination allowed Blaney to enter what's shaping up to be a classic championship battle. The 20 bonus points from two stage wins and another 55 points for the race win netted him 75 points, bringing him 48 points closer to points leader Denny Hamlin and 28 points closer to second-place Tyler Reddick.

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Now, Blaney is 65 points behind Hamlin and 41 points behind Reddick with six races to go until the Chase.

Where Did Ryan Blaney Come From?

Just in the last six races, since Reddick had his first misstep at Michigan International Speedway, Blaney has gained 133 points on Reddick and 12 points on Hamlin. 

In fact, Blaney and Hamlin ranks first and second for points earned (243 points, 231 points) in that stretch -- while Reddick ranks 25th (110 points).

In that stretch, Reddick had a crash at Michigan, a flat tire at Naval Base Coronado, power steering failure at Sonoma and a radiator issue at Chicagoland that netted him an average of seven points in those races. While he kept himself alive by finishing second at Pocono Raceway and being Blaney's closest competitor for a while at Atlanta, he didn't earn stage points at Pocono and finished eighth at Atlanta.

Reddick is looking for momentum but is about to face four short tracks in the next five races, compared to three in the first 20. While those tracks are a weak point for him, they're perfect for Blaney and Hamlin.

In the three short track races this season, Blaney ranks first for average points earned per race (53) while Hamlin is second (48).

Reddick is seventh with just 33.

The trends suggest Blaney has a good chance at passing Reddick and getting close to Hamlin -- but how close?

Blaney is likely to be a favorite at North Wilkesboro where teammate Joey Logano has shown Penske can be strong there. While Indianapolis Motor Speedway and the fast Toyotas will likely eat into Blaney's progress, he's a past winner at Iowa Speedway (2024) and the defending winner at New Hampshire Motor Speedway and Daytona.

In between Iowa and New Hampshire is Richmond Raceway where last year, with likely the same tire compound as this year, Blaney was passed for the final lead change.

Blaney will likely need a win or two in this stretch to jump ahead of Hamlin. Just beating him by five points per race won't be enough in six races with a 65-point gap.

With a win or two, consistency and a bad day or two for Hamlin and Reddick, Blaney has a chance at a walkoff win at Daytona to claim the No. 1 seed.

Can anyone else can get close?

Likely not but here's who could get the closest.

Ty Gibbs is 61 points behind Ryan Blaney, 102 behind Tyler Reddick and 126 behind Denny Hamlin. Gibbs averaged 48 points per race on the shorter ovals and has a win at Bristol against Blaney.

Chase Elliott is 116 behind Blaney, 157 behind Reddick and 181 behind Hamlin. Elliott averaged 28 points per race on the shorter ovals but has a win at Martinsville against Hamlin this year.

Kyle Larson is 132 behind Blaney, 173 behind Reddick and 197 behind Hamlin. Larson averaged 40 points per race on the shorter ovals and led the most laps at Bristol against Gibbs and Blaney.

Christopher Bell is 175 behind Blaney, 216 behind Reddick and 240 behind Hamlin. Bell averaged 34 points per race on the shorter ovals and led the most laps at Phoenix, where Blaney won. If he wasn't so far back, he'd likely be the biggest spoiler.

Chase Briscoe is 184 behind Blaney, 225 behind Reddick and 249 behind Hamlin. Briscoe averaged 23 points per race on the shorter ovals but is likely to net a higher average in the upcoming races since that includes a blown tire and crash at Phoenix. 

Chris Buescher and Carson Hocevar are in the middle of these five. However, they have averaged only 24 and 26.3 points per short track oval race, respectively, and haven't had the pace to garner attention.

William Byron and Joey Logano are two other drivers who could stand out on these tracks. However, Byron is 12th in points -- and Logano is 17th, not even in the breath of the championship conversation as he tries to get into the Chase.

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