Milwaukee has less than a month to decide whether its newest young forward gets paid now or bets on himself.
The Milwaukee Bucks are staring at an October 19 deadline, and the player on the other side of it might be the most interesting piece of their rebuild.
Forward Jaime Jaquez Jr. is entering the final season of his rookie contract, and Milwaukee has until that date to sign him to a rookie scale extension.
If the two sides do nothing, Jaquez plays out the year and hits restricted free agency next summer, when a strong season could push his price well past what it would cost today.
Decisions like this are where rebuilds quietly succeed or fail, because the teams that come out of them fastest are usually the ones that identified their keepers early and paid them before the rest of the league caught on.
How Jaquez Landed in Milwaukee
Jaquez arrived in July as part of the trade that sent forward Giannis Antetokounmpo to Miami, a deal that also brought guard Tyler Herro, center Kel'el Ware and guard Kasparas Jakučionis to Milwaukee along with a package of picks.
The 25-year-old is coming off the best season of his career, averaging 15.4 points, 5.0 rebounds and 4.7 assists on 50.7 percent shooting as Miami's sixth man.
That production followed a rocky path, since he made the All-Rookie Team in his first year, lost his way in year two and then rebuilt his value in a clearly defined bench role.
The market has already given Milwaukee a reference point.
His former Miami teammate Pelle Larsson just signed a four-year, $60 million extension with the Heat.
Jaquez had the better season of the two last year, and there could be a predicted a four-year, $75 million deal and the numbersnare fair for what Jaquez brings.
"In today's NBA, I don't think that's some crazy number for a productive player entering his prime who can give you 15-plus points, rebound, facilitate, and play multiple roles."
The Case for Paying Him Now
The argument for moving early is simple.
Milwaukee is rebuilding around players in their early and mid twenties, and Jaquez fits the timeline on a roster that is still sorting out big questions up front.
Lock him in now and the Bucks own his prime at a number that looks reasonable the moment he repeats last season.
Wait, and every good month between now and April drives the price up while other teams prepare offer sheets.
The argument for waiting is real too.
Jaquez has had one great year sandwiched around uneven ones, and this season is his first outside the system that revived him.
A bigger role in Milwaukee, possibly in a starting group that is still taking shape, will tell the front office exactly what it is buying.
The Right Call
Milwaukee should pay him.
A team that just traded the face of its franchise cannot be picky about which young players it believes in, and the path back to contention runs through exactly this sort of bet.
A fair extension signed in October will look like a bargain by spring, and even the downside case, a solid starter paid like a solid starter, is the sort of outcome a rebuilding team can live with.
