The general consensus is that the Celtics will be a good regular season team, but that seems to be predicated on the health of Paul George.
The Boston Celtics finished last season at 56-26 in the regular season, earning the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs before getting bounced in the first round by the Philadelphia 76ers in seven games.
I've written multiple times that I think the Celtics are headed for a No. 5 or a No. 6 seed this season, but it's not really because I think the Celtics are much worse than last season: It's because I think the Eastern Conference is just much better and more competitive.
The New York Knicks showed that they can win, and they return most of the same core that won last year's title. The 76ers have gotten better through additions of Jaylen Brown and LeBron James. The Toronto Raptors are better after acquiring Kawhi Leonard. The Detroit Pistons were the No. 1 seed last year and should be better as Cade Cunningham develops further.
The Cleveland Cavaliers already got to the Eastern Conference Finals last season and have made some substantial moves to get better this offseason. That's five teams right there that could be better than the Celtics, and that doesn't even factor into the new-look Miami Heat or Washington Wizards, or the Orlando Magic or the Indiana Pacers with the return of Tyrese Haliburton.
Boston Celtics forward Paul George (13) looks on during a press conference at The Auerbach Center at Boston Landing. Eric Canha-Imagn ImagesAdd it all up, and I just think the Celtics are destined for a regression. But not everyone thinks that. ESPN already wrote that they believe the Celtics will be very strong in the regular season, but not in the postseason. Jason Timpf of 'The Volume,' said on Tuesday that he thinks similarly. He thinks the Celtics are built for the regular season, but that not having Brown in the playoffs will be a difference maker.
Timpf raised a point in his argument that I've seen a lot lately: Essentially, people are saying: "I think the Celtics are good, and I think that this group fits together, but of course, Paul George has to stay healthy in order to make that fit work."
A lot of people seem to agree that the C's can be good in the regular season, but that George's health really dictates everything. And it's a fair point. After all, when healthy, George can score 15-17 points per game, won't try to get in Jayson Tatum's way, and is a reliable defender with major defensive pedigree. But the health questions are real: He's played in 56 games or less in six of the last seven seasons. He played in just 37 a year ago.
He says he feels great, and the Celtics are going to need him to in order to the projections that people are having for them.
I'd love to be wrong.
The season begins Oct. 20.
