A rebuilt rotation, a healthy Darius Garland and a front office promising competitiveness give this team more upside than the forecasts admit.
Roster turnover usually invites doubt, and few teams have revamped like the Los Angeles Clippers.
Since February the franchise has swapped James Harden for Darius Garland, moved Ivica Zubac for a package built around picks and young players, and then spent the summer reshaping the rest.
Rui Hachimura signed on in July, Bradley Beal re-signed in August, Max Strus arrived in a five-team trade, Johni Broome came over from Philadelphia, and Illinois guard Keaton Wagler landed with the No. 5 pick in June's draft.
That is close to a brand new team, and new teams are the ones forecasts get wrong.
The Doubt
ESPN's Summer Forecast this week projected the Clippers 11th in the Western Conference at 33-49, with the panel pointing to the roster uncertainty created by the on-hold Kawhi Leonard trade.
Fair enough, but that projection sits nine wins below what this group just did.
Los Angeles went 42-40 and finished ninth in the West last season through constant upheaval, and the year ended in a play-in loss to Golden State rather than a collapse.
A team that won 42 games mid-renovation should not be expected to lose 49 once the renovation is mostly done.
The forecasts are not unanimous either, since ClutchPoints projected this same roster at 46-36 with a top-eight finish earlier this month.
The Returning Bodies
The biggest offseason move might not have been a trade at all.
Garland played only 19 regular season games after the trade while managing a toe injury that needed surgery, yet still finished the year averaging 18.8 points and 6.7 assists across his time in Cleveland and Los Angeles.
He told HoopsHype this month that he finally has a full offseason and feels back to full strength, and he has already talked about his fit heading into his first camp with the team.
Beal appeared in just six games last season before hip surgery ended his year, so any healthy version of him is found money.
Ty Lue, who praised what Garland changed about the team after the deadline, returns to sort the pieces, with Brook Lopez back on his picked-up option to anchor the middle.
The Front Office Is Not Hiding
President Lawrence Frank skipped the usual rebuild talk when the Strus deal closed.
"We are going to be a highly competitive team this season and Max will be a big part of it," Frank said in the team's announcement, and he has kept praising the fit since.
The Leonard situation still hangs over everything, but both outcomes carry upside, since a completed trade would deliver Brandon Ingram, Gradey Dick and draft capital, while a canceled one keeps a proven star.
This team has a lead guard coming off surgery with something to prove, veterans finally healthy and Ty Lue coaching the whole thing.
Surprise seasons have started with less, and the league tips off on October 20, and a rotation this remade deserves to be judged on the floor rather than on paper.
Until then, 33 wins is really low.
