ESPN insiders left Memphis Grizzlies rookie Cameron Boozer outside their top four for NBA ceiling despite projecting him for immediate success.
The Memphis Grizzlies are hoping Cameron Boozer can be their future franchise player. According to a panel of ESPN insiders, he doesn't even have one of the four highest ceilings in his rookie class.
It seems almost unfathomable. If that's accurate, the Grizzlies may have blown a high lottery pick. If Boozer isn't one of the four players with the most potential in his class, taking him third was probably a mistake.
Luckily, he does.
Grizzlies' Cameron Boozer Snubbed in ESPN Poll
ESPN listed AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, Caleb Wilson, and Mikel Brown Jr. as the four rookies with the highest long-term ceilings. Boozer didn't receive a vote. That's especially interesting because the same panel ranked him first when asked which rookie was most likely to make an All-NBA team first. ESPN also had Boozer first for which lottery pick would have the biggest impact on winning this season.
On some level, each choice in the ceiling poll is understandable. The most questionable choice would be Brown, but as a 6-foot-5 playmaker, it's fair to say his ceiling is high. But what makes it higher than a 6-foot-9 playmaking hub like Boozer?
Here's a theory. Boozer's floor is so high that it's easy to underrate his ceiling. Boozer looked like a finished product at Duke. His 18.7 Box Plus/Minus was the second-highest qualifying mark in Sports-Reference's database since 2010-11, trailing only Zion Williamson. If he's already this good, how much better can he get? It's a fair question, but that doesn't mean his ceiling can't be higher. It only means it shouldn't take him as long to reach it — and that he's more likely to do so.
It feels like this ties into Boozer's run-and-jump athleticism as well. Each of the four players ESPN listed is stronger in that area. That's often why a prospect is perceived as having a higher ceiling. If the skills eventually meet the athletic tools, the thinking goes, they'll become the better player. Yet, that also feels like a false ceiling for Boozer.
Think about the best players in the NBA. Are they all conventionally elite athletes? Boozer most closely resembles guys like Nikola Jokić and Luka Dončić in that regard. He's got athletic qualities like strength and balance rather than overwhelming burst or vertical pop.
Can he reach comparable heights?
Boozer Has One of the Draft's Highest Ceilings
Time will tell. Jokić is a lofty target for any prospect. He has, at times, looked like the best player in the NBA. That said, it would be overly dismissive to suggest Boozer can never reach that type of territory.
It will take considerable work to get there, but Boozer put together one of the best individual college seasons in recent memory. He was the consensus National Player of the Year and became the first freshman or sophomore since Larry Bird to average at least 20 points, 10 rebounds, and four assists. The Grizzlies already view him as a centerpiece, and Boozer has embraced that responsibility.
There's no logical reason to suggest he doesn't have one of the highest ceilings in his class. Without intending any disrespect toward ESPN's experts, they got it wrong on this one.
Now, it's on Boozer to prove it.
