Stuck in lottery purgatory, the Grizzlies eye a deep 2026 draft class, hoping top prospects can redefine their franchise future.
There’s little left for the Memphis Grizzlies to play for in 2025-26.
It’s a harsh reality. It’s not what fans want to hear. That doesn’t make it any less true.
There is no path to a meaningful playoff run. Even if Memphis somehow snuck into the postseason picture, it would be chasing a ceiling that simply isn’t there. At this point, the organization’s most logical objective isn’t wins — it’s lottery positioning.
The problem? Even that path isn’t as clean as you’d hope.
The tanking landscape is crowded.
Right now, the Dallas Mavericks sit two games “ahead” of Memphis in the reverse standings. Dallas has every incentive to lean into development the rest of the way. It’s not impossible for the Grizzlies to pass them in the loss column, but it’s improbable.
Then come the Utah Jazz, three games “ahead.” After that, the Washington Wizards are five games clear in the tanking standings.
Memphis is not catching Washington. That gap is simply too large this late in the season.
The more realistic best-case scenario involves leapfrogging Utah. If that happens, the Grizzlies would climb to sixth-best lottery odds. The worst case? Falling behind the Chicago Bulls, who trail Memphis by three games and remain within striking distance. That would drop Memphis to ninth-best odds.
The Milwaukee Bucks are also in the lower tier, but their decision to stay competitive around Giannis Antetokounmpo signals they won’t be joining the intentional slide.
At the moment, Memphis sits eighth in the lottery order.
That position carries a 6.0% chance at the No. 1 overall pick. The odds of landing No. 2 sit at 6.3%, No. 3 at 6.7%, and No. 4 at 7.2%. Add it up, and the Grizzlies have roughly a 26% chance to move into the top four.
Their most likely landing spot? Eighth overall — a 34.5% probability. Seventh isn’t far behind at 32.1%. The expected value of their position projects to No. 7 overall.
If Memphis can climb to sixth in the odds, that top-four probability rises meaningfully. If they slip to ninth, the math gets steeper.
The encouraging part is the strength of this draft class.
The headliners are Darryn Peterson, AJ Dybantsa and Cameron Boozer. Those are the big prizes — legitimate franchise-changing talents.
If Memphis somehow lands in the top four, the franchise trajectory shifts immediately.
There’s also a presumptive fourth name gaining traction: Caleb Wilson out of North Carolina. At 6-foot-10, Wilson projects as a versatile defender capable of guarding multiple positions. He flashes elite defensive tools with developing offensive feel. He may never be a primary on-ball star, but in terms of archetype, he could offer the kind of defensive backbone Memphis once relied on from Jaren Jackson Jr..
And the depth doesn’t stop there.
Houston’s Kingston Flemmings profiles as a polished two-way point guard — someone who can defend at the point of attack while orchestrating an offense. Arkansas’ Darius Acuff Jr. brings more offensive pop. He’s not viewed as the same level of defender, but his shot creation and scoring upside are enticing.
The reality is this: The odds strongly suggest Memphis falls outside the top four. The probability of doing so exceeds 70% from their current slot.
But this isn’t a top-heavy class where falling to seventh or eighth feels like failure.
There are at least three potential franchise players at the top. If Memphis doesn’t land one, it still stands to walk away with a high-upside prospect who fits a long-term build.
The Grizzlies are bad at the right time.
That won’t make this season easier to swallow. It won’t quiet frustration in the short term.
But it does mean that when the ping-pong balls drop, Memphis will have a legitimate opportunity to reset the direction of the franchise — even without top-tier odds.