Rockets vs Thunder Odds and Pick Why Houston Covers Tonight

The Houston Rockets are 2.5-point favorites at home against the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight, and I'm laying the points without much hesitation. Alperen Şengün is back, Oklahoma City is down six players, and this number feels about a bucket too small.

My pick is Rockets minus 2.5. Houston only needs to win by three to cover, but I think the Rockets take it by nine, 115-106. Earlier previews had Houston giving 4.5. The number has since settled at 2.5 across all four major sportsbooks, and my read is that bettors are reacting to Fred VanVleet getting the night off on the back end of a back-to-back. His absence matters, and I think the market leaned too hard on it.

Rockets vs Thunder Odds

Odds are current as of 2:00  p.m. CT on Saturday, Oct. 31, and are subject to change before tipoff.

DraftKings: Moneyline Rockets -142, Thunder +120. Spread Rockets -2.5 (-110), Thunder +2.5 (-110)

FanDuel: Moneyline Rockets -144, Thunder +122. Spread Rockets -2.5 (-112), Thunder +2.5 (-108)

BetMGM: Moneyline Rockets -140, Thunder +115. Spread Rockets -2.5 (-110), Thunder +2.5 (-110)

Caesars: Moneyline Rockets -145, Thunder +122. Spread Rockets -2.5 (-110), Thunder +2.5 (-110)

Tipoff: 7:30 p.m. CT at Toyota Center in Houston. 

TV: NBA TV, Space City Home Network and NBA League Pass.

Everything starts with Şengün, because Houston is a different team when he plays. The Rockets are 4-0 in his four appearances, and he's averaging 24.5 points, nine rebounds and seven assists on 58-percent shooting. A sore lower back kept him out Friday in Dallas, and his name is nowhere to be found on the league's latest injury report for tonight.

That's a nightmare matchup for this banged up Thunder roster. With Chet Holmgren and Thomas Sorber both sidelined, Isaiah Hartenstein projects as the Thunder's starting center, according to The Oklahoman. Hartenstein is smart and physical, but he's about to spend the night chasing a center who can score on the block, face up from the elbow and find cutters before the rotation gets there. If he picks up a couple of early fouls, Mark Daigneault's options behind him get pretty thin.

The bigger concern for the Thunder is putting points on the board. Oklahoma City is averaging 108.2 points per game, which ranks 27th in the league, and shooting less than 31-percent from three. That's an ugly starting point for a team that just lost two more rotation players.

Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace both got hurt against the Clippers last Sunday. Since then, the Thunder beat Phoenix at home and then got run out of Dallas by 24, making just 15.6-percent of their threes that night, per StatMuse. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander finished with 21 points on 7-of-19 shooting in that loss.

I'm not expecting Gilgeous-Alexander to go quietly. He's averaging 26 points per game, and Ajay Mitchell has been a legitimate bright spot, scoring 29 in Dallas and averaging 18.6 points on 53.6-percent shooting. The trouble for Oklahoma City is the drop-off after those two. With Williams, Wallace and Alex Caruso all out, Ime Udoka can throw extra bodies at the two guys who can beat him and make everybody else prove they can knock down shots.

Houston has also handled business at Toyota Center. The Rockets are 2-0 at home, beating Dallas by 18 and Atlanta by 10. They're averaging 121 points per game, third in the league, with the NBA's second-best offensive rating, according to DraftKings Network. There's a reason this team is sitting at the top of Bleacher Report's latest power rankings.

This roster has already shown it can win without a key piece, too. Houston beat Milwaukee by 32 on Wednesday with Şengün out of the lineup. That kind of depth is why I keep coming back to the question of whether the Rockets are the best team in the NBA right now. 

There are real ways this goes sideways, and I'd be lying if I pretended otherwise. VanVleet and Reed Sheppard are both out, which puts a lot of the ball-handling on Marcus Smart and Amen Thompson. Houston also gave up 28 fast-break points in Dallas and made just seven of its 29 threes. If the Rockets cough it up and keep missing from deep, Oklahoma City will be running all night, and a 2.5-point cushion evaporates.

What keeps me on Houston is the glass. The Rockets grabbed 20 offensive rebounds Friday, and Tari Eason pulled down eight of them by himself. Crashing the boards is the one part of this team's identity that shouldn't care about a back-to-back, and the Thunder are seriously short on size to push back.

I'm higher on Houston than the market is, and I'm comfortable with that. Oklahoma City has enough star power to make this interesting for a half. I don't think they has enough healthy bodies to hang with a Rockets team that's undefeated with its center on the floor. Give me Houston minus 2.5, and give me the Rockets by nine.

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