Are Blazers Really the West's Best Team? Advanced Metrics Make Stunning Case

When the Chicago Bulls hired Tiago Splitter in June, the Portland Trail Blazers found themselves in a strange position.

Portland had just won 42 games and returned to the playoffs for the first time in five years. But the coach who got them there was gone, the season had ended in the first round, and the franchise was stuck somewhere between rebuilding and contending.

Less than five months later, the Blazers have the best record in the Western Conference ... and the advanced metrics suggest they might actually be the best team in it.

Portland enters Friday's matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers at 6-1, with numbers that would've seemed ridiculous back in June.

Basketball-Reference ranks Portland first in the NBA with a plus-11.2 net rating, measuring how much a team outscores its opponents per 100 possessions.

Minnesota trails at plus-11.1, with Memphis and Houston also among the conference's leaders.

The Blazers also boast the league's best offensive rating at 122.3 points per 100 possessions. Their 111.1 defensive rating ranks 12th, meaning the offense has been doing most of the heavy lifting.

But how exactly has Portland been so efficient?

The Blazers rank third in effective field-goal percentage at 56.4 percent, which accounts for the added value of three-pointers. They're also grabbing 31.7 percent of available offensive rebounds.

That combination matters. Portland is making shots at one of the league's highest rates while recovering nearly a third of its misses, creating additional possessions for an offense that's already difficult to stop.

And the numbers remain impressive when accounting for the competition.

Basketball-Reference's Simple Rating System, which factors strength of schedule into scoring margin, ranks Portland second in the NBA at plus-13.27.

Houston leads at plus-13.32 ... a difference of just 0.05 points.

The Rockets deserve consideration themselves. They've started 7-2, own a plus-10.6 net rating and rank third in offensive efficiency at 121.2.

In fact, the strength-of-schedule adjustment gives Houston a slightly stronger statistical argument than Portland.

Of course, seven games aren't enough to crown anybody.

Portland demolished Phoenix 124-83 on opening night, accounting for 41 of its 78 points in total scoring differential. More than half of the Blazers' scoring advantage came from that one game.

Remove it, however, and Portland has still outscored its opponents by 37 points across six games.

The competition presents another wrinkle.

The Blazers are 4-0 against teams currently holding losing records, winning by an average of 21 points. Against opponents with winning records, they're 2-1 and have been outscored by six total points.

That includes a 21-point loss to Memphis. Portland also beat the Lakers in Los Angeles and won in Denver, hardly victories worth dismissing.

Perhaps the most encouraging development, though, has come without Ja Morant.

Portland acquired the two-time All-Star on June 29, just six days after hiring Micah Nori to replace Splitter.

Morant suffered a Grade 2 hamstring strain against Memphis and has since missed three consecutive games. The Blazers have won every one of them.

Those victories came by a combined 43 points, including Wednesday's 132-119 win over Phoenix. Deni Avdija, Damian Lillard and Donovan Clingan helped keep Portland's offense productive without its biggest offseason acquisition.

For a team that spent June figuring out its next direction, Nori has made a pretty convincing first impression.

The Blazers will get another opportunity to prove themselves Friday against the Lakers before hosting San Antonio on Saturday and Oklahoma City twice next week.

Four consecutive games against winning teams should offer a much better indication of how sustainable this start actually is.

But Portland's record deserves more credit than simply dismissing it as an early-season surprise. The Blazers lead the West, rank first in net rating and own the league's second-best strength-of-schedule-adjusted rating.

Not every advanced metric identifies Portland as the conference's best team. Enough of them do to make the argument legitimate.

Back in June, the question was whether 42 wins represented Portland's ceiling.

Five months later, the Blazers are leading the Western Conference and forcing everyone to reconsider what they're capable of.

And if advanced metrics matter as much as everyone insists they do, Portland has earned the right to be considered the West's best team right now.