Alex Sarr's Washington Wizards Breakout May Be Getting Started

Alex Sarr is entering a big year for the Wizards. After showing improvement from his rookie season to his sophomore year, year three is an opportunity for Sarr to cement himself as one of the better young centers in the NBA. However, I will admit, there are legitimate questions surrounding him, especially after missing significant time this offseason with a foot injury which may have hampered his entire offseason, though he's expected to be available by opening night. But when you look at what Sarr accomplished at just 20 years old with inconsistent guard play, and then consider the all star talent the Wizards have placed around him, there are plenty of reasons to believe another significant jump could be coming, especially regarding his overall efficiency.

The biggest improvement from Sarr last season was his efficiency. Sarr went from shooting around 69% at the rim as a rookie to approximately 75.6% in his second season. His efficiency from three to ten feet also improved from around 36% to 43% as well as his 3 point shot going from 30% to 33%. Those might not seem like enormous differences, but it is solid development for a young big man who played with inconsistent guard play throughout the majority of his career. 

And here's the exciting part, he did it without a high level point guard consistently creating easy opportunities for him. Now he has Trae Young, one of the premier floor generals and alley oop passers in this league. Sarr averaged around 16 points and seven rebounds per game without playing alongside an elite playmaker. Now the Wizards are pairing him with one of the best passers and pick and roll creators in basketball. Trae's ability to manipulate defenses and consistently get his big men easy looks around the basket should make life much easier for Sarr.

On top of that, Sarr is already dangerous in transition because he runs the floor extremely well for his size. He can finish above the rim, trail the play for jumpers and even attack after catching the ball on the move. Put that elite mobility and athleticism next to Trae's passing ability and Sarr should be feasting on the transition as well. 

His per 36 numbers demonstrate just how intriguing the offensive upside already is as he averaged 21.6 points, 9.8 rebounds, 3.6 assists and 2.6 blocks per 36 minutes. The passing is also intriguing as Sarr averaged 2.7 assists in only 27.2 minutes per game last season. He's not Nikola Jokic, obviously, but there is legitimate playmaking potential there. He can make reads from the perimeter and move the basketball.

However, Sarr's calling card remains his defense. He averaged 2.0 blocks per game last season, totaling 95 blocks in only 48 games. His block rate ranked around the 94th percentile. Opponents shot approximately 52% at the rim against him, putting him around the 90th percentile as a rim defender. With that being said, his mobility is what makes his defensive ceiling so tantalizing. He can cover ground quickly, recover after initially getting beaten and defend actions away from the basket. So, in summation, I would boil Sarr's biggest strengths down to four things: rim protection, defensive versatility, mobility and emerging offensive skill.

On the flip side, there are still big weaknesses that Sarr needs to improve on. First, Sarr needs to become more aggressive around the basket. With his physical tools, I want to see him putting more pressure on the rim and getting to the free throw line more frequently. And once he gets there, the 69% free-throw shooting needs to improve. Hopefully becoming stronger and more willing to embrace contact could unlock another level offensively.

The rebounding also has to get better. Sarr ranked around the 44th percentile in defensive rebounding percentage last season. That's an improvement from roughly the 20th percentile as a rookie, but average defensive rebounding isn't where you want your seven foot starting center to ultimately settle on. The Wizards need Sarr to become more physical and consistently finish defensive possessions with rebounds.

Regarding his 3 point shot, Sarr developing into a reliable three point shooter could be one of the biggest keys to the Wizards entire offense. The projected starting lineup needs spacing, especially if Anthony Davis is going to spend significant time operating around the paint. If Sarr becomes a legitimate threat from outside, suddenly the pick and roll becomes less predictable, the floor opens for Trae, and the Wizards have much more flexibility in their starting 5.

That's why the biggest areas of improvement for Sarr are pretty straightforward: play finishing, rebounding and physicality, scoring efficiency away from the rim and getting to the free throw line.

Now Sarr has the golden opportunity to develop alongside an elite point guard and a future Hall of Fame big man in Anthony Davis. Trae can teach him how to operate with an elite pick and roll creator, while Davis can help Sarr understand and grasp the nuances of becoming a dominant two way big man.

Sarr already averaged around 16 and 7 without a true point guard. Now he's playing with one of the best lob passers in the NBA. The efficiency should improve with just Trae Young’s presence alone. But in my opinion, that's exactly why this is such a big year for Alex Sarr. We've seen the flashes. We've seen the statistical improvement. Now it's time to get a better evaluation of just how good he can become in the future.