Is Tre Johnson Being Undervalued for Washington Wizards?

Is it fair to say that Tre Johnson is being kind of underrated by the Washington Wizards' fanbase?

It’s a weird thing to admit, especially considering the Wizards lost 64 games to earn the sixth overall pick, and Tre Johnson was the prize. Yet heading into his second season, it feels like people are slightly overlooking him.

Even after exploding for 26 points in just 28 minutes during his lone Summer League appearance recently, Johnson still isn't viewed as a lock to start this upcoming season. Most projected starting lineups feature Trae Young, AJ Dybantsa, Kyshawn George, Anthony Davis, and Alex Sarr, leaving Johnson battling for his spot.

Personally, I think that's selling him short. Tre Johnson's biggest strength has always been his ability to score. Few 20 year olds possess his combination of shot creation, confidence, and offensive versatility. He can create off the dribble, knock down spot-up threes, curl around screens as a movement shooter, attack in pick and roll, and punish defenses from the midrange. He's comfortable taking difficult shots, and more importantly, he expects to make them.

That supreme confidence is what separates him. As a 19 year old rookie, Johnson carried a 22.0% usage rate while attempting 10.8 field goals per game despite averaging only 24 minutes. That's an impressive offensive workload in limited minutes for someone who was 19 years old as a rookie, and it shows just how much trust the coaching staff already had in his scoring ability.

His midrange game, in particular, deserves far more attention. Johnson attempted 5.3 long midrange shots per game and converted an outstanding 54.4% of them, ranking in the 89th percentile leaguewide. His 86.5% free throw percentage landed in the 80th percentile, another strong indicator that he's an elite natural shooter.

His three point percentage finished at 35.8%, but that number doesn't tell the whole story, especially when you factor in that he made 40% of his threes at Texas. Before injuries began piling up, Johnson was flirting with 50/40/90 efficiency and looked every bit like the elite shooter Wizards fans hoped they were drafting.

Unfortunately, the injuries changed everything. A lingering hip flexor issue dating back to Texas, followed by a left ankle sprain against Milwaukee on January 29, derailed the second half of his rookie season. Before the All-Star break, Johnson averaged 12.9 points, 2.2 assists, and 2.7 rebounds while shooting 44% from the field, 38% from three, and 89% from the free throw line. After the injuries and the inevitable dreaded rookie wall set in, those numbers dropped to 10.9 points while his shooting percentages fell to 38% from the field and just 29% from deep.

The decline wasn't about talent or his offensive capabilities (I mean, look at his play at Texas and the first couple of months of the season, he was impressive). Instead, his body simply wasn't ready for the grueling grind of an 82 game NBA season.

That should change this year. Johnson has visibly added muscle throughout the offseason and he'll now be playing alongside one of the NBA's best playmakers in Trae Young. With Young orchestrating the offense, Johnson should receive cleaner catch and shoot opportunities than ever before. Even in the limited sample of games they played together, Johnson attempted nearly two more three pointers per game than he did without Young. Better spacing and higher quality looks should naturally boost and inflate his efficiency.

There are still areas that need improvement.

Johnson remains a jump shot reliant scorer. NBA tracking data shows he averaged just 3.4 points per game in the paint compared to 4.7 points generated from three point shooting. He converted only 55.6% of his attempts at the rim, placing him in just the 9th percentile. Becoming a more consistent rim finisher would make him significantly harder to defend.

Defensively, there's also work to do. Johnson never projected as a lockdown defender, even at Texas, but playing next to Trae Young means the Wizards cannot afford another defensive liability in the backcourt. He averaged only 0.6 steals, 0.3 blocks, and 2.8 rebounds per game. His defensive stop percentage ranked in the 14th percentile, while his 1.4 deflections per game placed him in the 39th percentile. Improving his lateral quickness, screen navigation, physicality, and ability to generate turnovers will be essential if he wants to secure a permanent starting role. Now I am not saying that he needs to reach Bilal Coulibaly or Jamir Watkins level, but just seeing an improvement to a respectable category, especially with his on ball defense, would be huge for Johnson’s aspirations as a starter this upcoming year. 

Still, when you step back and look at the complete picture, it's hard not to see the foundation of a future three level scorer. Now that he's healthy, stronger, and playing with an elite floor general, the circumstances are lining up for a sophomore leap. 

Whether he starts or comes off the bench, don't be surprised if Tre Johnson becomes one of the biggest reasons the Wizards take another step forward this year. The talent has always been there. Now it's simply a matter of putting it all together.