The Illinois Fighting Illini football team is 2-2 on the season, having beaten the UAB Blazers and Southern Illinois Salukis and having lost to the Duke Blue Devils and Ohio State Buckeyes.

Coach Bret Bielema's team is getting healthier as Big Ten play enters into its second week, but troublesome signs continue to appear as the Fighting Illini sift through what went wrong earlier in the season.

On Wednesday, ESPN released its projections for the final eight games of Illinois' 2026 schedule, casting doubt over Bielema and his team as they head toward the midway point of the season. 

Win probabilities for the Illini's final eight games were released, and list Illinois as favorites in just three of their final eight games, as shared by reporter Carson Gourdie.  

Illinois was given an 81.1% chance to beat Purdue, the best odds. Bielema's team was given a 53.4% chance to beat Michigan State in East Lansing, Mich. The Oregon game carries a 22.4% chance of Illinois winning.

The following week at Maryland is a 64.6% chance at an Illinois win. The Illini's home game at Nebraska has probably the most surprising odds on the list at 29.9%. Illinois' road game at UCLA has a 29% win probability while vs. Iowa is listed at 38%. 

The Illini's final game, at Northwestern, carries a 31.7% chance of a Wildcats win. 

"Illini football ESPN matchup predictor: Illinois is 2-2 right now....MSU, Maryland are must wins," Gourdie wrote. 

"And if Illinois' defense improves, and the offense continues to perform, these numbers will continue to move." 

The Fighting Illini defense has been the team's Achilles heel in its two losses to the Blue Devils and Buckeyes, giving up 31 and 42 points.

Defensive coordinator Bobby Hauck's unbalanced fronts were gobbled up by both teams, exposing the weakness of the Fighting Illini's tackling on the first and second levels of the defense. Bielema has not announced a new defensive coordinator, leaving a huge question mark at the position heading into Saturday's game vs. Purdue. 

Illinois' offense has been consistently strong this season, even with injuries to key players including wide receiver Jayshon Platt. Illinois' offensive braintrust of Bret Bielema and Barry Lunney, Jr. has been together for going on five seasons, providing continuity that continues to pay off on the scoreboard. 

If the Fighting Illini's defense, led by veteran defensive backs Matthew Bailey and Xavier Scott, can step up its play heading to the midway point, Illinois will start to be favored in more games. 

There's still a lot of football to be played, and development to be done, as Illinois continues to find its way in a highly competitive Big Ten Conference.