Terrell: Why Iowa State Football Will Beat Oklahoma State
Oct 30, 2026 4:51 AM

Under Ames' Halloween lights, the Cyclones must dominate the clock and rattle Drew Mestemaker to upset the ranked Cowboys, but secondary struggles could spark a fatal shootout.

Schultz's pre-Oklahoma State thoughts. More Videos

The Iowa State Cyclones (3-4) take on No. 24 Oklahoma State Cowboys (5-2) at Jack Trice Stadium. This Halloween night matchup pits two Big 12 rivals against each other. The Cyclones come into this game looking to shake up the conference and knock the Cowboys out of the top 25. Can they pull it off?

You've already read Boatright's thoughts earlier on Thursday, so now it's time for mine. Here are three reasons Iowa State will win - and three reasons why they won't.

Why Iowa State Will Win 

Control the Clock: Sometimes, the best defense is a good, low-tempo offense, and that may be the best option for this Iowa State team facing off against one of the most explosive offenses in college football: Oklahoma State, led by star transfer quarterback Drew Mestemaker. Keeping him and that offense off the field will give the Cyclones their best chance to win, and the best way to do that is to utilize breakout running back Aiden Flora.

Home Field Advantage: Playing under the bright lights in Ames gives Iowa State a huge advantage. Jack Trice Stadium is one of the toughest places to play for visiting teams, and the Cyclones have won four of their last 6 home games against Oklahoma State, with an energetic crowd on Halloween night waiting for them. This atmosphere can create issues for the Cowboys' offense, especially with pre-snap penalties.

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Force Mistakes: You could have Mestemaker give you one and that's exactly what this Cyclones' defense needs to do - force Oklahoma State into obvious 3rd and long situations. If they can generate some pass rush pressure without going in with a heavy blitz, then they can force Mestemaker into bad decisions and create the chance for a turnover to get the field position.

Why Iowa State Will Lose 

Secondary Issues: This Iowa State secondary has had all sorts of problems all season when it comes to defending deep passes and has been struggling with breakdowns on a regular basis. They're going up against a very explosive Cowboys offense led by Drew Mestemaker who is known for his strong arm, so you can't help but think the secondary is going to have a very difficult time on Halloween night.

Cant Keep Up In A Shootout: Just like the secondary struggles to stop big plays, this Iowa State offense struggles to generate them. Iowa State relies heavily on the ground game, using their offensive line to lean on people and methodically drive down the field while chewing clock. The pass game has struggled, averaging only 176.9 yards per game. If this game turns into a shootout, the Cyclones are not built to keep up or overcome it.

Cowboys Stuff the Run: The Cyclones' offense relies heavily on running the football. It allows them to control the clock and could help them keep this Cowboys offense off the field. But Oklahoma State's defense has been great against the run all year, allowing just 137.6 rushing yards per game. If the Cyclones can't run the ball, this could turn into a shootout, which is a game Iowa State does not want to play.

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