Three Early Thoughts Ahead of Iowa State Football's Road Contest Against Baylor

Following what became the first AP Top 25 victory for unranked Iowa State in the Jimmy Rogers era, the Cyclones hit the road for another true Big 12 test against the Baylor Bears on Saturday. The biggest key in this one: play defense. 

Since the start of conference play, Iowa State has allowed 30 or more points in four of its five games. The most recent came against Oklahoma State, with the Cyclones allowing a season-high 49 points against despite narrowly escaping with a 51-49 victory. 

Offensively, Iowa State is overcoming some of last season's hurdles. In both the victory over Oklahoma State and its earlier win over West Virginia, The Cyclones' offense erupted behind starting quarterback Jaylen Raynor.

Raynor threw for 309 yards and three touchdowns against the Cowboys, following suit to his 264-yard performance against the Mountaineers. But despite the offensive production, one question remains: Why can't Iowa State find a way to get stops?

Against Oklahoma State, Raynor wasn't even the leading pass between the two teams. That distinction belonged to Cowboys quarterback Drew Mestemaker, who finished with 323 yards and five touchdowns, two more than Raynor. 

More concerning was Iowa State's inability to contain the deep ball. Mestemaker connected on two touchdowns of 40 yards or longer, exposing the secondary and its issues that will need resolved ahead of Baylor. If the Cyclones continue struggling to defend the explosive plays, it'll be another difficult day down in Waco. 

Cyclones' starting running back Aiden Flora has emerged as a rare breed of talent this season. Through eight games, he's one of just three running backs at the FBS level with multiple 200-yard rushing performances. 

It's fair to say that Flora had big shoes to fill following the exit of Carson Hansen among other members of the Cyclone offense, but he's more than stepped up to the plate. Against the Bears, however, it might be a different story. 

Baylor ranks second in the conference in run defense, having allowed an average of just 99.4 yards per game through eight games. That's nearly half of the 159.2 yards per game the Cyclones find themselves struggling to lock down. 

Success against Baylor is going to take more than just a strong run presence, but also winning the battle at the line of scrimmage and closing the gaps. 

Ahead of Saturday's contest against Baylor, the Cyclones have yet to win a game on the road this season. The last time that happened was back in 2022, when Iowa State failed to win a single road contest all year. 

The Cyclones only won a single conference game behind then-quarterback Hunter Dekkers that year, a mark they've already surpassed now halfway through the 2026 season. And the last time Iowa State took down Baylor on the road: 2023. 

It's also the first road contest against an unranked conference opponent, something that will either set them up perfectly, or could potentially play into their demise. 

Either way, we'll find out on Saturday.