Illinois at Michigan State: Final Score Prediction

My Prediction: Michigan State 20, Wisconsin 31

Actual Score: Michigan State 3, Wisconsin 31

We nailed it right on the head with the Badgers.

Expecting the second consecutive opponent to put up 31 points on the Spartans almost seemed too easy. That’s exactly where Wisconsin landed, meaning I was 50% of the way to correctly predicting the final score.

Unfortunately, Michigan State’s offense struggled mightily in its first full game without star running back Cam Edwards. The Spartans were able to move the ball down the field, but much like the rest of the season, the offense crumbled when it got close to the end zone.

Head coach Pat Fitzgerald also continued to show a willingness to go for it on fourth down rather than take points, and those attempts were unsuccessful. The only points Michigan State managed to put on the board came on a Liam Boyd field goal.

Ultimately, I fell 17 points short on the Spartans’ side, so it certainly wasn’t my greatest prediction. We’ll do better this week.

Both teams enter this matchup at 2-3 overall and winless in Big Ten play through two conference games. Both are also approaching this game in desperation mode.

While both teams’ College Football Playoff hopes have all but gone up in smoke, there is still plenty to play for. Both are fighting to maintain bowl eligibility, and to stay on pace for that goal, one of these two teams needs to come away with a victory.

Luckily for college football fans, that’s guaranteed to happen since there are no ties in the NCAA.

Both teams are also coming off losses, while Michigan State has dropped three consecutive games. That should make this a matchup between two teams that are hungrier than ever to get back into the win column.

For Michigan State, the Spartans will have the benefit of playing in front of their home crowd during Homecoming. That could provide a little extra energy inside Spartan Stadium and potentially give Michigan State the spark it desperately needs.

Still, the offensive struggles are likely going to be too much for the Spartans to overcome. Michigan State may need one of its best defensive performances of the past decade to pull off the home victory.

Vegas currently has Illinois favored by 1.5 points. That line opened at 3.5 before moving two points toward the Spartans, so perhaps there’s something about this matchup that is giving people confidence in Michigan State. Or maybe the betting market is simply putting too much stock into the Spartans playing at home on Homecoming.

Illinois has shown it can score points, but it has also shown it can give them up.

Every Illinois game except last week’s loss to Purdue has reached at least 50 total points, while only one Michigan State game has reached that mark this season.

Illinois’ defense will need to play sound football, and if it does, that alone could send Michigan State’s offense spiraling. If the Illini can get back to their usual scoring ways after managing just seven points through three quarters against Purdue, this game could get ugly quickly.

On the other hand, if Katin Houser struggles against a Michigan State defense that has allowed 89 points over its last three games, perhaps the Spartans can pull off the upset.

But I’m not betting on it.

Michigan State 16, Illinois 30