Illinois at Michigan State: Spread and Over/Under Prediction

Last Week:

Season Record: 6-3-1

I again fell for the idea that the Spartans could push the ball on at least two, possibly three, drives.

What I failed to account for was head coach Pat Fitzgerald’s aggressiveness on fourth down, mixed with Michigan State’s inability to protect on must-have plays.

The result? The Spartans’ offense got even worse than it was against Nebraska and was limited to just three points in a 31-3 loss at Wisconsin, barely avoiding a shutout.

I knew the Badgers would win by 10. They won by 28.

I also believed the two teams could combine for at least 44 points. Instead, they combined for just 34, largely thanks to Michigan State’s offensive struggles.

But we lived through it, learned from it and split the week to keep the season record in the green.

Vegas has Illinois as a road favorite, with the Fighting Illini sitting at -1.5 at most sportsbooks. The line opened at -3.5 before moving significantly in Michigan State’s favor.

The over/under is set at 48.5.

Since Week 1, no Michigan State game has surpassed 42 total points. Since Week 2, the Spartans’ offense has crumbled into a shell of what it was once expected to be.

However, I don't want to let the trends of previous weeks dictate this week’s over/under prediction.

Illinois’ most recent game against Purdue finished with just 41 total points, but that was the only Fighting Illini game this season to finish below 48 points.

Michigan State will continue to rely heavily on its defense, and I don't see a scenario where Illinois scores more than 31 points.

Even if the Illini reach 31, you would need to believe Michigan State’s offense can find a long-lost rhythm and produce at least 18 points to push this game over 48.5.

I’m fading the over here and sticking with the under.

As much as I want to believe in the Spartans — and I absolutely hope they can protect home field — they are banged up and, quite frankly, look even worse offensively than they did last season.

And that's saying something.

I hope I’m wrong, but I don't see a path to a Michigan State victory here. In fact, I'm not sure the Spartans can win another game until their matchup against Rutgers to end the season.

Illinois -1.5

Under 48.5