Illinois at Michigan State: Three Best Bets

Week One: 3-1

Week Two: 2-1

Week Three: 1-2

Week Four: 0-1 (2 voids)

Week Five: 3-0

Overall: 9-5

Back to the winning side of life.

Last week, I picked Wisconsin to win by just three points. The Badgers won by 28. I also recommended taking Colton Joseph over 20 rushing yards, and he finished with 141. Lastly, I told oyu to take Jayden Savoury over 20 yards, and he finished with 26.

We finally got back on the winning track, not only winning the week but sweeping it.

Now it's time to look ahead to Week Six, as Michigan State hosts Illinois at Spartan Stadium during homecoming weekend. Both teams enter the matchup at 2-3 overall and 0-2 in Big Ten play, making this a critical game for two programs desperate to get back on track.

Here are my three favorite bets for Saturday's showdown.

Illinois ranks near the bottom of the Big Ten in rushing defense, allowing more than 125 rushing yards per game. On paper, that makes this an appealing matchup for a Michigan State offense that continues to lean on the ground game despite scoring just 16 points over its last two contests.

Jaziun Patterson has taken on the lion's share of the rushing workload since Cam Edwards suffered a season-ending injury. However, Patterson has averaged just 58 rushing yards over his last two games, despite receiving approximately 17 carries per contest.

The workload is there, but the production hasn't consistently followed. Vegas is banking on Patterson turning those opportunities into at least 80 rushing yards against the Fighting Illini, but I'm not convinced.

I'll take the under and bet on Patterson finishing closer to the 60- to 70-yard range.

If Michigan State is going to get back in the win column, this is the kind of game it needs to win. The Spartans are at home for homecoming, but they've suffered three consecutive losses, with each performance seemingly worse than the one before it.

The betting line has moved around, with Michigan State opening as a 3.5-point underdog before the spread tightened. Still, the Spartans look lost in nearly every facet of the game.

Offensively, Michigan State can establish some semblance of a running game, but that identity tends to disappear when the Spartans fall behind by two or three possessions. Unfortunately, that has become a familiar problem.

Illinois hasn't exactly been a Big Ten powerhouse this season, and the Fighting Illini have their own issues to solve. This could be an ugly, hard-fought contest between two teams searching for answers.

As much as I'd love to see Michigan State deliver a homecoming win, I'm putting my money on the visitors. I'll take Illinois on the moneyline.

Michigan State's inability to contain opposing quarterbacks on the ground has become another concern. That makes former Spartan Katin Houser an intriguing option in this matchup.

Houser isn't known as an especially mobile quarterback, but he's willing to use his legs when opportunities arise. He's recorded at least 14 rushing yards in four of his five games this season, giving him a strong track record of clearing this modest number.

Quarterback rushing props always carry some risk in college football because sacks count as negative rushing yards, potentially wiping out otherwise productive runs.

However, Michigan State has averaged just 1.4 sacks per game and hasn't recorded a sack in either of its last two contests. If the Spartans can't consistently pressure Houser, he should have opportunities to pick up the 10 yards needed to cash this bet.

I'll take the over.

These are my three favorite bets for Michigan State's homecoming matchup against Illinois. Each can be played individually, or you can combine all three into a parlay.

At the listed odds, the combined parlay is approximately +200, meaning a $50 wager would return about $150 in total, including the original stake. Actual parlay odds may vary by sportsbook.

The Spartans need a win, but I'm backing the Fighting Illini, fading Patterson's rushing total and betting on Houser to make an impact with his legs.