Michigan State at Michigan: Lock of the Week

Last Game: Ty Dieffenbach Over 174.5 Passing Yards (CORRECT)

Overall Record: 4-4

After securing a big Lock of the Week win a couple of weeks ago, I was able to get back to the .500 mark, which seemed a bit too far away earlier in the season. Now, with four games remaining, I have plenty of work to do if I want to finish the season at 8-4.

This week, the skeleton crew that will be playing football for Michigan State will head to Ann Arbor. The Wolverines appear to be getting healthier as a team while also starting to find some offensive rhythm with Tommy Carr now taking over as the starting quarterback.

Both the Spartans and Wolverines rank near the bottom of the Big Ten in scoring offense. Michigan, on the other hand, has a competent defense that has helped the Wolverines secure a couple of big wins and stay competitive in close games.

Michigan State has been dealing with a slew of injuries across the defensive side of the ball since the very first week of the season. Joe Rossi's defense has been shaky for much of the year, with its lone performance to really hold its head high coming against Northwestern, when the Spartans stifled the Wildcats' offense.

This is a rivalry game, which means both teams will come into the matchup with a little extra pep in their step and a little more anger to unleash. Regardless of who is available for either team, we should be in for a dogfight.

It isn't just the players who understand what this game means. Pat Fitzgerald has already talked about how this week means just a little bit more. Even though every week deserves the players' full attention, there's something different about Michigan State facing the maize and blue from Ann Arbor. Even the head coach gets a little more fired up, and that's saying something considering Fitzgerald already brings plenty of passion and fire.

My expectation is that we will see a heavy dose of running from both teams, even with the Spartans missing their top three running backs for this contest.

I expect a steady stream of handoffs and screens from both sides, especially if Spartans starting quarterback Alessio Milivojevic, who is listed as questionable, isn't able to go at full strength.

That rushing-heavy approach will be the foundation of my Lock of the Week.

First-Half Under 20.5 Points

If both teams are going to lean heavily on the run, we could see the first half fly by quicker than a Blue Angels flyover.

Even if Milivojevic starts, I'm not sure the Spartans will be able to crack Michigan's defense consistently in the first half. On top of that, I'm not the biggest Tommy Carr believer just yet. He has plenty of room to grow and could become a ridiculously good quarterback in due time, but I don't think that time is this season.

This game has all the makings of a 7-0 halftime score.

Take the first-half under of 20.5 points, and let's keep the Lock of the Week winning streak going!