Michigan State at No. 9 UCLA: Score Prediction

My Prediction: Northwestern 33, Michigan State 14

Actual Score: Northwestern 24, Michigan State 21

Last week, I undersold the Spartans and oversold Northwestern. As much as I knew the rivalry aspect would affect the game, with Pat Fitzgerald facing his alma mater and Aidan Chiles facing the team that benched him last year, I still expected Northwestern to take advantage of Michigan State's injury woes. However, I was wrong.

Michigan State held its own and even had a chance to win the game, or at least take a three-point lead, in the final minute. Instead, Northwestern blocked the field goal, drove down the field and won on its own field goal. Now, let's get to this week.

Michigan State's battle cry was heard around the world a couple of weeks ago when Pat Fitzgerald let his emotions get the best of him on the sideline while arguing with the referees. Since then, the Spartans have shown signs of a turnaround. Over the past six quarters, Michigan State has scored 45 points, and their last two losses have been within four total points total.

Michigan State enters this game with nothing to lose, which can sometimes make a team one of the scariest opponents to face. Meanwhile, UCLA remains undefeated, playing at home as a 14.5-point favorite. That combination could ultimately lead to a trap game for the Bruins.

There is plenty of pressure on UCLA to continue proving itself, especially after losing its starting quarterback for the season. The Bruins are the only team in the Big Ten that remains undefeated overall, yet they rank ninth nationally, behind only No. 3 Ohio State and No. 6 Indiana among Big Ten teams.

UCLA relies on a heavy rushing attack that ranks fifth in the Big Ten, while Michigan State allows the sixth-most rushing yards in the conference. On paper, that spells trouble for the Spartans. However, Northwestern presented a similar challenge last week, entering the game as the Big Ten's third-best rushing team. Despite Michigan State's injury-riddled defense, the Wildcats struggled to establish their ground game consistently.

Although the Spartans are still battling injuries, with 17 players listed as out or questionable on the availability report, they have already shown they can punish opposing rushing attacks.

Michigan State's top four cornerbacks remain out this week against UCLA. However, the Bruins rank last in the Big Ten in passing, averaging just over 150 yards per game. UCLA's backup quarterback threw for more than 250 yards against Wisconsin last week, but the change at quarterback could still represent a step down for the Bruins.

If Michigan State's defensive line, including Anelu Lafaele and Ben Roberts, can continue creating chaos in the backfield after combining for three sacks last week against Aidan Chiles and Northwestern, UCLA could be in for a longer day than expected.

I have predicted the Spartans to lose each of their last four games, and I have been correct. However, with each passing week, they seem to get a little closer to pulling out a win.

UCLA came to East Lansing last season during Michigan State's homecoming and flat-out embarrassed the Spartans. Now, Michigan State has a chance to extract some revenge against a Bruins team that could potentially overlook a 2-5 Spartan squad.

Michigan State 23, UCLA 21

I have picked against the Spartans in each of their last four games, but this is the week I think they finally pull off the upset. Michigan State has shown it can compete, even with a depleted roster, and UCLA could be vulnerable with its backup quarterback leading the offense.

The Bruins have plenty of reasons to be confident, but a 14.5-point spread feels too high against a Michigan State team that has kept its last two losses within four points. I think the Spartans take advantage of the opportunity, pull off the upset on the road and come away with a much-needed victory.