Northwestern at Michigan State: Final Score Prediction

Last Week:

I missed the mark by a lot last week. As bad as Illinois’ defense had looked heading into the game, I wasn’t confident enough in the Spartans’ offense to believe it could fire on all cylinders the way it ultimately did.

Michigan State exceeded my expectations and those of many others. In fact, the Spartans had a chance to pull off the upset as the game came down to a final two-point conversion attempt. Unfortunately, a disastrous play call on their own version of the Spartan Special failed, and the Spartans lost by one point.

Illinois scored eight more points than I predicted, although that was largely due to overtime. Had the game ended in regulation, I would have been just one point off on the Illinois side. However, Michigan State fooled me by 21 points.

Now, we come back hungrier than ever to correctly predict the outcome of another game this season. I’ve been as close as four points off and as far away as last week’s 29-point difference between my predicted and actual final scores.

This week presents another tough matchup to predict.

With revenge games filling the air, it’s hard to get a read on either team.

To the naked eye, Northwestern has looked much better than Michigan State. The Wildcats held their own against the defending national champions, suffering their only loss of the season by just six points.

Northwestern relies on a heavy ground-and-pound attack, which could open up opportunities for former Spartans quarterback Aidan Chiles in the passing game. The Wildcats boast the third-best rushing offense in the Big Ten and have parlayed that success into a top-25 ranking for the first time since current Michigan State head coach Pat Fitzgerald was coaching in Evanston.

Michigan State’s defense is far from great, but if there is one thing the Spartans have done well this season, it’s stopping the run.

While the pass defense has struggled, the run defense has been much more reliable. Hard-nosed tackling has made it difficult for opposing running backs to find room, although opposing quarterbacks have given the Spartans plenty of trouble on the ground.

Now, Michigan State faces its former quarterback, Chiles, who was benched last season and has shown how dangerous he can be with his legs. The Spartans know his skill set well, but that familiarity doesn’t necessarily make him any easier to stop.

Northwestern, meanwhile, has a statistically underwhelming defense that has struggled to keep opposing offenses from moving the ball. However, the Wildcats have allowed just 16.2 points per game, the sixth-best mark in the Big Ten. They have shown the ability to bend without breaking, making opponents work for points even when they move the ball.

Unfortunately for Michigan State, finishing drives has been a problem. The Spartans’ struggles in the red zone could prove costly against a Northwestern defense that has done a solid job of limiting the damage.

This game has all the ingredients for an entertaining matchup. It’s a noon ET kickoff, and revenge will be fueling both sides as Fitzgerald faces his former program and the Spartans welcome back Chiles.

However, Northwestern has been the more consistent team, and Michigan State’s offensive struggles make it difficult to trust the Spartans to keep pace.

My Final Prediction:

Northwestern 33, Michigan State 14