Riding a cold streak but hunting a turnaround, our handicapper targets a vulnerable, injury-riddled Spartans defense as the surging Badgers look to dominate their high-stakes homecoming matchup.
Last Week:
Michigan State +7.0 (WRONG)
Overall: 1-3
All right, we can officially call this the fade of the week segment.
It's gotten out of control, as I've hit just 25% of my first four Locks of the Week. A brutal reminder that no matter how much you study a team, sports will always find a way to humble you.
So, if you've stumbled upon this article, read the opening record, and are still here, I'd recommend closing the tab now.
Seriously.
If you're still reading and have decided to ignore that advice, I'd almost recommend fading whatever Lock of the Week I'm about to present. In fact, I'd probably have a better shot at hitting my pick if I renamed this series the "50/50 of the Week," threw a dart at a board full of -110 bets, and went with whatever it landed on.
But not today. Nope.
I've seen NFL teams start 1-3 and still make the playoffs. It isn't common, but it doesn't mean it's impossible.
I'm determined to right the wrongs I've created with this series and finish the season well in the green.
So follow along if you want, fade if you want, or laugh at the stupidity of trying again and again when nothing seems to go right. But if you're still here, let's ride.
Lock of the Week for Week 5
Michigan State enters this matchup as banged up as ever, dealing with injuries to key players on both sides of the football. The Spartans are also riding a two-game losing streak, one that could be weighing heavily on a team desperately searching for answers.
They'll need a rallying cry on the road in Madison, Wisconsin, as they prepare for their first Big Ten road matchup of the season. Unfortunately for the Spartans, the game also coincides with Wisconsin's homecoming, meaning the Badgers will have plenty of motivation to put on a show in front of their home crowd.
Wisconsin is coming off a statement victory over Penn State, delivering a knockout punch to the Nittany Lions with a remarkable fourth-quarter comeback. The Badgers erased a 14-point deficit to secure the upset, and the result appeared to carry over into the following week, as Penn State suffered another loss to Northwestern on Friday night.
After opening the season with a loss to Notre Dame, Wisconsin has now won four consecutive games and appears to be building momentum at the perfect time.
Meanwhile, Michigan State is heading in the opposite direction, searching for consistency while trying to overcome a growing list of injuries.
I think Wisconsin, playing at home on homecoming weekend, is going to put up more points than any Spartan fan wants to hear this afternoon. The Badgers have found their rhythm offensively, and I don't see a banged-up Michigan State defense doing enough to keep them below this number.
Lock it in: Wisconsin Team Total Points Over 23.5 (-180)
Let's see if we can finally get this train back on the tracks.
