Souring on player props after a shaky start, our expert targets a potential trap game in East Lansing, betting on the Spartans to cover against the Cornhuskers.
Week One: Chrishon McCray UNDER 54.5 Receiving Yards — WRONG
Week Two: No Lock
Week Three: C.J. Carr UNDER 249.5 Passing Yards — CORRECT
Week Three: Cam Edwards OVER 44.5 Rushing Yards — WRONG
Overall: 1-2
After missing the Lock of the Week in Week One and then literally missing Week Two by not publishing my article in time, we had to make up for lost time with two Locks of the Week in Week Three.
Unfortunately, I missed one of those as well.
The suffocating Notre Dame rush defense held Cam Edwards to just 38 rushing yards, leaving him seven yards short of the 44.5-yard benchmark I needed.
If I keep losing the Lock of the Week, we might have to change the name of this article to Fade of the Week.
But that won't be the case this week.
I'm feeling good about this week's pick, and if we can cash this one, we can start stacking wins on top of each other and work our way toward finishing the season profitably.
Week Four Lock of the Week Runner-Ups
I had quite a few contenders for this week's Lock of the Week.
A potential rebound game for the Spartans makes several player props intriguing, but if Michigan State is going to get back to its winning ways against a tough but beatable Nebraska team, the Spartans will likely need to return to what worked so well earlier in the season: running the football and controlling the time of possession.
That has me looking closely at several Cam Edwards rushing lines.
Edwards has established himself as Michigan State's bell-cow running back, but he was put in a difficult position last week against the No. 3 team in the country. Notre Dame dominated much of the game and controlled the time of possession, ultimately limiting the opportunities Edwards had to make an impact.
This week, Pat Fitzgerald should once again lean on his star running back.
That's why Edwards' rushing attempts and rushing-yard totals are both intriguing options.
The passing game also has some interesting possibilities.
When the Spartans throw the football, it has been spread among their top receivers, including Rodney Bullard III, Chrishon McCray and Frederick Moore. However, the tight end position has essentially been funneled to one player: Jordan Savoury.
Savoury has led Michigan State in receptions in each of the last two games and is sitting at just 2.5 receptions for Saturday.
He has also eclipsed 30 receiving yards in each of Michigan State's first three games, with his 30-yard receiving line sitting around even money.
Both are plays I like quite a bit.
But neither will be the Lock of the Week.
Taking the Points
Instead, we're looking at the Spartans as a team.
This game feels like it could be a trap for Nebraska, especially with the Cornhuskers entering Spartan Stadium as 5.5-point favorites despite having played just three games.
Nebraska has a top-25 offense and defense, and there is certainly plenty to respect about what the Cornhuskers have done to this point.
But when looking at the teams Nebraska has played and the adjusted ratings surrounding those opponents, I haven't seen enough to convince me that the Cornhuskers are an elite team.
Nebraska enters this matchup with plenty of confidence.
Michigan State enters it with plenty of motivation.
After what happened against Notre Dame, the Spartans return home with a bag of chips on their shoulder. They have an opportunity to respond in their first Big Ten game of the season, and I expect Fitzgerald's team to come out with plenty of aggression.
I'm not necessarily calling for Michigan State to win outright.
But I am willing to buy the Spartans an extra point and a half.
That brings us to the Week Four Lock of the Week:
Michigan State +7.0 (-162)
If the Spartans do lose this game, I don't see it being by more than a touchdown.
Week Four Lock of the Week: Michigan State +7.0 (-162)
