Michigan State Football Game-by-Game Predictions: Ceiling (10-2) vs. Floor (4-8)

If you're just jumping into this series, let's get you caught up.

This is the second half of the season after I spent the first installment breaking down Michigan State's opening six games, predicting both the highest of highs and the lowest of lows. The goal wasn't to simply create a 12-0 dream season or a 0-12 nightmare. Instead, it was to find the realistic ceiling and realistic floor for every game on the schedule.

That becomes a little more difficult as the season progresses, but nonetheless, we press forward.

Now we've reached the back half of the schedule.

In one universe, everything goes right for Michigan State. The stars align, the Spartans shock the college football world with statement win after statement win, and they enter this stretch sitting at 5-1 after their lone loss to Illinois in the first half.

Or, we can look at things from another universe entirely.

In the floor scenario, Michigan State opened the season with two wins before dropping four consecutive games, leaving the Spartans searching for answers with confidence beginning to fade.

So, let's throw on the invisibility cloak, grab the Time Stone, and jump through millions of possible futures. Like Doctor Strange in Avengers: Infinity War, we're searching for the outcome that awaits.

Ceiling — Win (6-1)

Floor — Win (3-4)

The revenge game of all revenge games.

Even with the in-state rivalry just a few weeks away, this matchup may mean even more to a lot of people around the program. The storylines practically write themselves. Pat Fitzgerald returns to face not only his alma mater but also the school where he spent 17 seasons as head coach.

Then there's Aidan Chiles, who transferred to Michigan State alongside Jonathan Smith two years ago hoping to help rebuild the program. Unfortunately, it never fully came together. Now Chiles is at Northwestern and is projected to be the Wildcats' starting quarterback.

Could this game be competitive? Absolutely.

However, while Chiles has his own revenge angle, Fitzgerald's motivation feels much larger. I simply don't see a scenario where the Spartans lose this game, regardless of who starts at quarterback for Northwestern.

Ceiling — Win (7-1)

Floor — Loss (3-5)

I was very tempted to make this a double loss for both the ceiling and the floor.

Can Michigan State beat UCLA on any given Saturday? I believe so.

That said, traveling across the country to Pasadena is never easy. The Spartans were handled by UCLA in East Lansing last season, so there could be a revenge factor for several returning players.

Michigan State certainly has a path to victory in Los Angeles, but it won't come easy.

Ceiling — Win (8-1)

Floor — Loss (3-6)

This is the biggest game on Michigan State's schedule for Spartan fans.

It also comes one week after Halloween and just two days before Michigan State basketball opens against Duke, setting the stage for an exciting stretch for Spartan athletics.

This is another game that easily could have been a double loss in these predictions because there simply aren't many universes where this Michigan State roster matches Michigan's talent from top to bottom.

But there are a few.

That's why the ceiling remains a win.

Most likely, this will be a hard-fought contest between two relatively new head coaches trying to establish their programs. However, with the game taking place inside the Big House, it would likely take something close to a miracle for the Spartans to leave Ann Arbor victorious.

Ceiling — Win (9-1)

Floor — Loss (3-7)

Am I getting carried away with these ceiling predictions? Maybe.

Is this starting to sound like a fictional story built on green-and-white dreams? Possibly.

Still, Washington has to travel all the way to East Lansing, and anything can happen inside Spartan Stadium.

I wouldn't put as much confidence into this prediction as I would against Northwestern, but just like Michigan and UCLA, Washington isn't a team that feels completely unbeatable if everything breaks Michigan State's way.

So the ceiling keeps climbing, and unfortunately, so does the floor.

Ceiling — Loss (9-2)

Floor — Loss (3-8)

Here's the first true double loss.

Even with Oregon making another cross-country trip, the Ducks remain one of the nation's elite teams.

The one encouraging factor is where this game falls on Oregon's schedule. The Ducks play Michigan the week before before traveling to East Lansing, then immediately head back home to host Washington. That's a difficult stretch of travel and quality opponents, making this at least a potential trap game.

Add in the fact that this is Michigan State's final home game of the season, and Spartan Stadium should be electric.

Even with those factors, though, Oregon is simply a team that can beat Michigan State anywhere right now.

The Spartans will compete, but this is still a difficult matchup.

Ceiling — Win (10-2)

Floor — Win (4-8)

A double win to close out the regular season.

In no universe should Michigan State lose this football game.

After watching Rutgers get the better of the Spartans multiple times during the Jonathan Smith era, new head coach Pat Fitzgerald has an opportunity to finish the season on a positive note.

Whether Michigan State arrives in Piscataway fighting for double-digit wins or simply trying to salvage the year, I believe the Spartans end the season with an emphatic road victory.

This would be one of the wildest universes imaginable.

If Pat Fitzgerald leads Michigan State to a 10-2 record in his first season, he'll immediately be mentioned alongside the sport's biggest turnaround stories, including Curt Cignetti.

Will it require complete buy-in, a few breakout performances, and a little luck? Absolutely.

But that's why it's called the ceiling.

This outcome is probably closer to what many national analysts are predicting.

Michigan State could stay competitive in several of these games, only to struggle finishing late against more talented opponents.

Now the predictions are finished.

All that's left is waiting one more month before we finally get to watch these universes begin to play out on the field.