Northwestern vs. Michigan State: 3 Best Bets for Week 7

Week One: 3-1

Week Two: 2-1

Week Three: 1-2

Week Four: 0-1 (2 voids)

Week Five: 3-0

Week Six: 2-1

Overall: 11-6

Last week proved to be another winning week. Outside of one massive 36-yard run from Jaziun Patterson, we were on the verge of sweeping two straight weeks.

I told you to take Katin Houser over 9.5 rushing yards, and he finished with 14. I also told you to take Illinois moneyline rather than the spread. With both teams struggling, there wasn't a clear side to trust. The spread moved from 3.5 to 1.5 before settling at 2.5, all of which would have worked in the Spartans' favor. Illinois won by just one point, but the moneyline pick still connected.

Lastly, I told you to take Patterson under 80 rushing yards. The Spartans leaned on him down the stretch, and it paid off for Michigan State, but not for the under. Patterson finished with 93 yards on 17 attempts.

After going 5-1 over the past two weeks, I'm determined to keep the winning picks coming. With a matchup against a top-25 Northwestern team on the horizon, I've cooked up three of my favorite bets for the game.

Death, taxes and me adding Jayden Savoury to my best bets slip.

Savoury continues to lead the team in receptions (tied) and sits second on the team in receiving yards.

The Spartans found their offensive rhythm in the second half of last week's game, scoring 30 points in the final two quarters and overtime. That was four more points than they had scored in the previous three games combined.

Northwestern's defense ranks third-worst in the Big Ten in passing yards allowed per game (220.0). Although I'm not buying that matchup enough to take Alessio Milivojevic's passing yards, I will use it to back the team's best pass catcher, who continues to be criminally undervalued by Vegas.

Let's flip the defensive concerns to the Spartans' side for this prop.

Michigan State allows the sixth-most passing yards per game in the Big Ten (192.7). That number could be even higher if the Spartans hadn't found themselves in blowouts in the three games before Illinois.

Not only are they allowing the sixth-most passing yards despite opponents largely running out the clock in the fourth quarter, but they're also dealing with injuries to their top four cornerbacks and starting linebackers.

Chiles has passed this mark in four of his five games, with the only miss coming against a top-five Indiana team.

This is a revenge game for Chiles, who's already stated how excited he is to return to Spartan Stadium. I bet he wants a lot more than anything to make his former team regret letting him go.

Northwestern leans on its run game and could build a big lead, which doesn't bode well for Chiles' passing-yard over. But I think there's too much revenge on Chiles' mind for him to fall short of this line.

Michigan State has allowed each of the last three quarterbacks it faced to rush for at least 14 yards, including two who surpassed 60 rushing yards.

Houser was six yards away from reaching the 20-yard mark last week before getting injured in the third quarter.

Chiles has hit this mark in three of his first five games and has done so in each of his last two.

As mentioned in the previous prop, Chiles has revenge on his mind for this game. Spartan fans know all too well how good Chiles can be when he takes off with the ball in his hands.

I'd be pretty shocked if Chiles doesn't hit this number. Then it'll just come down to whether, and how many times, the Spartans can get home for a sack. We also know Chiles can be a liability when it comes to taking sacks.

Betting lines are subject to change. Check the odds and player availability before placing your bets.