Ranking Michigan State's Biggest Upset Chances in 2026

The Spartans are projected to win the first two games of the season against Toledo and Eastern Michigan. After that, however, the Spartans are projected to lose every single game.

Looking at win probabilities based on ESPN, along with a guess on the spread via Sheehan_Sports on X, the Spartans are not supposed to be that good this season. The only game where there’s a real “chance” the Spartans win after their first two would be the revenge game for Fitzgerald against Northwestern. The Spartans are still favored to win via win probability, while also showing plus money to bet on.

So, I’m going to go through and rank these final 10 games of the season—the same 10 games the Spartans are projected to lose—in order of my probability of pulling off the upset.

10. Oregon — (6.9%) +25.5

Oregon is the hardest opponent on the Spartans’ schedule, and if Dante Moore is rolling for the Ducks, it’ll be nearly impossible for the Spartans to pull off this upset, even with the game being held in East Lansing.

9. At Notre Dame — (3.2%) +27.5

This is the lowest probability the Spartans have of winning a game as they travel to South Bend. But to me, I wanted to put this higher because I truly believe that with the addition of a few Fighting Irish players and coaches to the Spartans’ team, there might be enough inside information to give MSU a real fighting chance.

8. At Michigan — (11.8%) +18.5

Two brand-new head coaches, both of whom have a ton of experience. This game will be favored in Michigan’s favor since it’s at the Big House, but I smell something crazy in the air for this game.

7. Illinois — (38.0%) +6.5

This will be one of the hardest matchups for Michigan State. Although Illinois isn’t fighting for national championship status, they’re a good team that will look to head to East Lansing and steal a win. The Spartans can win this game, but it’ll take everything they have.

6. Nebraska — (32.1%) +4.5

Right after Notre Dame, the Spartans come back home to take on Nebraska, a game I truly believe will push the Spartans past the bottom-dweller mantra they’ve held onto over the last few years. This win will put the Spartans on the map.

5. At Wisconsin — (30.7%) +4.5

The Spartans should be able to beat the Badgers, but with this game being played in Wisconsin, it’s going to be a bit tougher to win. As much as I believe the Spartans will definitely win this game, there’s a bit of nervousness that comes with it.

4. At UCLA — (37.6%) +7.5

The Spartans will look to get revenge against the Bruins after MSU got embarrassed by UCLA during homecoming last season. Now, Michigan State travels to Los Angeles and will look to return the favor against a bad UCLA team.

3. Washington — (32.9%) +11.5

The Spartans will host the Huskies this year as Washington travels across the country. Washington seems to have a better team on paper, but with the Spartans hosting Washington right before Oregon, MSU is going to bring everything they have.

2. At Rutgers — (44.0%) +4.5

The Spartans won their final game last year and will surely do it again this year. No matter how right or wrong this article is, the final two teams on here are automatic wins for the Spartans, and that includes Rutgers.

1. Northwestern — (52.6%) +1.5

The revenge game of all revenge games.

Fitzgerald against his alma mater, the very team that fired him after 16 seasons of coaching. On the other side, Aidan Chiles gets his revenge game against the Spartans after being kicked out the door following two seasons of worse-than-mediocre play.

The Spartans will not lose this game.