Capitalize on massive point spreads and plus-money prop bets as the Spartans test their grit against a powerhouse Irish squad in a high-stakes, rainy South Bend showdown.
- Michigan State to Score in Every Quarter (-120): Correct
- Michigan State -13.5 (-178): Correct
- Michigan State Over 17.5 First-Half Team Total (-102): Wrong
Overall: 5-2
The MAC teams are officially gone for Michigan State.
After another near-perfect week, the Spartans now face their biggest challenge of the season as they travel to South Bend to take on the No. 3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
Michigan State could only muster 14 first-half points against Eastern Michigan before exploding for 21 unanswered points in the second half. However, my favorite play of the week — Michigan State scoring in every quarter — hit, while buying the spread down to two touchdowns turned out to be completely unnecessary.
Now, the competition gets significantly tougher.
Notre Dame is one of the most highly regarded teams in the country, with plenty of national voices projecting the Fighting Irish as a legitimate College Football Playoff and national championship contender.
That is why Michigan State entering this game as a massive underdog makes sense.
But I still think Vegas is underestimating what Pat Fitzgerald has built in East Lansing.
Here are the three plays I’m hammering this week.
Michigan State +31.5 (-150)
The spread has already moved in Michigan State's favor.
Notre Dame opened as a 29.5-point favorite, with that number moving to 28.5. However, I'm not interested in playing the standard spread.
I'm buying even more points.
At +31.5, Michigan State can lose by 31 points and still cash this ticket. That gives us some much-needed protection in a game where Notre Dame absolutely has the talent to run away with it.
I’m predicting a Michigan State win, but when I give out my best plays of the week, I'm trying to build a card where all three plays can hit even if my outright prediction doesn't.
This is the safety net.
Cam Edwards Anytime Touchdown (+145)
Cam Edwards has been the bell cow for Michigan State through the first two games, leading the team with three touchdowns.
And if the rain arrives as expected in South Bend, I expect the Spartans to lean even more heavily on their ground game.
That means it could be the Cam Edwards show.
Edwards has already demonstrated his ability to break off explosive runs thanks to his patience and vision, but Michigan State doesn't need him to rip off a 50-yard touchdown to cash this ticket.
Get inside the five-yard line and I expect Fitzgerald to give his workhorse every opportunity to finish the drive.
Edwards at plus money for an anytime touchdown is simply too tempting for me to pass up.
This could very well be one of the few games all season where we can get Edwards at plus money to score.
I'm smashing it.
Cam Edwards 40+ Rushing Yards (-150)
Vegas might truly believe Michigan State could struggle to reach 100 total rushing yards in this game.
To me, that's asinine.
Yes, Vegas knows a lot — probably more than me — but when it comes to the Spartans, I have a hard time believing Fitzgerald is going to completely abandon the running game regardless of what Notre Dame does early.
If you think Cam Edwards is going to be held under 40 rushing yards in a game where rain is expected and Michigan State has already shown how heavily it is willing to lean on him, I simply don't see it.
Even if Notre Dame jumps out to a massive lead, Fitzgerald isn't suddenly going to forget the identity he's established for this team.
Michigan State currently ranks eighth nationally in time of possession, and controlling the clock will be critical against Notre Dame.
The Spartans need to shorten the game, establish the run and keep Notre Dame's offense on the sideline.
That starts with Edwards.
Give me 40-plus rushing yards and let the workhorse go to work.
The card: Michigan State +31.5, Cam Edwards anytime touchdown and Cam Edwards 40+ rushing yards.
