Washington at Michigan State: Three Best Bets to Play

Overall Record: 17-9

Last week, I correctly told you to take the under on Tommy Carr's passing yards, set at 199.5, as he finished with just 138 yards. I also recommended Kenneth Williams over 13.5 longest rushing yards, and he came through with a 23-yard scamper.

However, I also led you astray by recommending Savion Hiter over 49.5 rushing yards. The Spartans' rushing defense was too angry to allow that to happen, stifling Hiter to just 17 rushing yards.

This week, we're taking our 17-9 record and four wins in the last five weeks back home to Spartan Stadium, where Michigan State welcomes Washington.

The Huskies come in with one of the Big Ten's best passing offenses, ranking fifth in passing yards per game (265.1). That will be tested against a Spartans pass defense that is no slouch either, ranking ninth in the Big Ten in passing yards allowed per game (194.3).

On the other side of the ball, Michigan State's passing offense ranks near the bottom of the Big Ten and has been tough to watch for most of the season. Even with starting quarterback Alessio Milivojevic returning last week against Michigan, the wide receiver room remains dismal at best. The Spartans continue to lack the ability to create separation, and when they do, it is often met with hesitation from the quarterback.

When it comes to rushing, both teams rank near the bottom of the Big Ten, despite Michigan State doing its best to lean heavily on the ground game. The Spartans hold a slight advantage, averaging 110.1 rushing yards per game, ranking 16th out of 18 teams. Washington averages just 99.3 yards per game, ranking 17th.

The two teams are also close in rushing yards allowed, with Washington holding a slight advantage. The Huskies rank 12th in the Big Ten, allowing 136.0 rushing yards per game, while the Spartans rank 13th, allowing 147.2.

The biggest questions will be whether the Spartans' secondary can contain Washington's receivers and whether Michigan State's defensive line can create enough chaos in the backfield.

I expect a tight, low-scoring game, and here are my three favorite bets.

Vegas gave Williams, who looks to be playing despite his injury, a couple of extra yards over 200, setting his line at 202.5.

Even with Washington's scheme likely leaning heavily on the passing game coming into this matchup, the Spartans' secondary has proved capable of holding its own defensively, game after game. The unit is also only getting healthier.

Williams will be traveling across the country for a game I expect to be very low-scoring. Michigan State is also coming off a performance in which it gained an extreme amount of confidence by attacking the Michigan offense for 60 minutes.

This one might get close, but I'm sticking with the under on Williams' passing yards.

I actually haven't included McCray in a betting article since he was my lock of the week in Week One to stay under his receiving yards, only for him to go over and leave a sour taste in my mouth.

I found other ways to win and make money by avoiding McCray.

Now, I'm back.

McCray has proven himself over and over again and is the shiftiest player on the team with the ball in his hands.

He has hit this mark in two of his last three games. The one time he didn't, the Spartans had two true freshmen playing quarterback while their starter dealt with an injury.

I'm going back to McCray this week and taking the over.

I bought this one up from the mark Vegas originally set at 19.5. I feel a little more comfortable knowing the Spartans can score 20 points and still leave me victorious, even if I get less money in return.

The Spartans left it all on the field in last week's victory over Michigan. In my opinion, the defense will be able to hold its own against a Washington team coming across the country after a demoralizing loss to Penn State.

Unfortunately, I don't see the offense popping off.

The Spartans have continuously struggled to score points, both on the road and at home. They lean heavily on their defense and special teams, along with ball control and time of possession, to win games.

That style isn't going anywhere, and I believe Michigan State will struggle to reach 20 points.

My final score prediction is Washington winning 20-12.