In a game that wasn't always pretty, Nebraska was able to make more big plays than Michigan State to win their conference play opener.
They say that "sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good."
For much of this game, it felt like one team was just waiting for a couple of extra breaks to go their way and pull away. For example, Nebraska scored its first touchdown three plays after a punt was blocked (and then called back due to a penalty). Spartans’ players started making circus catches, only for Donovan Jones to rip the ball away from Alessio Milivojevic and recover the fumble Jones created.
In Big Ten play, every win deserves celebration. Penn State lost at home to Wisconsin, despite being a big favorite. Indiana struggled at home against Northwestern. While it didn’t look great at times, the overall result was positive for the Huskers. There’s plenty to like, and plenty for Nebraska to improve.
Nebraska weathered a rough third quarter and pulled away in the fourth because explosive passes, defensive havoc, and favorable field position gave the Huskers enough advantages to overcome their offensive inconsistency.
Explosives Needed
As in the opener, Nebraska’s offense was driven primarily by explosive plays in this game. The two first-half passing plays by Anthony Colandrea were the Huskers’ two biggest plays in terms of EPA. Outside of those, they struggled to string together positive plays, especially in the second half. Their success rate was only 43% in this game. In fact, Game on Paper has them losing the net success rate matchup, with Michigan State at 45% positive plays. A healthy Jamal Rule improves the offense dramatically.
Despite Nebraska's success on explosive plays, I thought they might have used them more often. Colandrea was 3/3 on throws more than 15 yards downfield for 80 yards. He was just 6/16 on throws between the line of scrimmage and 14 yards downfield. It’s refreshing to know that Nebraska has the deep ball in its back pocket, especially if they are playing from behind.
Havoc Created
The defensive line stepped up in this game, making plays in the Michigan State backfield. While Nebraska blitzed effectively, Williams Nwaneri and Jahsear Whittington combined to get to the quarterback three times. The Blackshirts also intercepted two passes and had a strong chance at a third on the first play of the game. It was the first game since 2015 in which the Blackshirts recorded 6+ sacks and 2+ interceptions.
A Special Victory
I thought the Huskers were much better than the Spartans on offense and defense going into this game. I expected Nebraska to win those two phases easily. However, I thought LaVar Woods could be a special-teams wild card that could tilt the game in Michigan State’s favor. And he almost did.
The Spartans blocked an Archie Wilson punt on Nebraska’s second drive, which would’ve set them up at the Huskers’ 32-yard line. Instead, they were called for a penalty that extended the drive and let Nebraska take an early lead. It was the kind of break Nebraska has so often been on the wrong side of. In terms of win percentage movement on a play, it was the third most important play in the game.
Nebraska’s special teams essentially played LaVar Woods to a draw. Both kickers added 7 points to the scoreboard (although PATs are sweeter than field goals). Michigan State had more return opportunities than the Huskers, so it won the total return yardage matchup, but the Huskers averaged more yards per return than the Spartans.
Most importantly, the Huskers won the field position battle. The Blackshirts played a major role in that victory, forcing two turnovers that gave Nebraska the ball in Michigan State territory (similar to the Huskers' 2022 victory at Iowa). Unfortunately, Nebraska could only turn those two short fields into three points. All three phases of the game help determine who wins the field position battle. While Nebraska could have capitalized more on the short fields, it still gave Nebraska the advantage for much of the game.
It wasn’t always pretty, but football in the Big Ten rarely is. Nebraska played complementary football; when the offense struggled to string together successful plays, the defense forced turnovers, giving the offense more opportunities. The offense needs to sustain success more often as playoff-contending teams approach.
Luck is when preparation meets opportunity. Nebraska seized those opportunities in East Lansing.
