Despite a high-profile coaching staff, analysts project a rocky 6-6 finish for the North Carolina Tar Heels as Bill Belichick fights to salvage a grueling schedule and culture shift.
The North Carolina Tar Heels are expected to be much better in Bill Belichick's second season as head coach, but there are certainly plenty of questions about how competitive the team will be.
Belichick made some necessary adjustments this offseason, bringing in legendary offensive mind Bobby Petrino to be the offensive coordinator after parting ways with Freddie Kitchens after a 4-8 season.
Per 247 Sports, UNC ranked 22nd in recruiting for the 2026 class overall, bringing in 61 commits and 12 four-star athletes. That's seven sports better than they were in 2025.
Still, the Tar Heels face an uphill battle to make a bowl game this year thanks to a brutal schedule.
Brad Crawford of CBS Sports predicts UNC to make a bowl game, but just barely with a 6-6 record. He's predicting wins over East Tennessee, Duke, Syracuse, UConn, Virginia, NC State but losses to TCU, at Clemson, Notre Dame, at Pitt, Miami, Louisville.
Based on Crawford's predictions, the Tar Heels will start 1-4 before making a dramatic turnaround. It would take a strong team not to fold in that condition by October.
Crawford argues a 6-6 finish could set up the program for better success in 2027.
"After last season's failure to launch in Bill Belichick's first campaign, simply getting the Tar Heels back to bowl eligibility would represent tangible progress in this staff's second year," Crawford wrote. "North Carolina's hire of Bobby Petrino to reconfigure the offense and improve execution will help a program that is still trying to establish the discipline, toughness, and consistency Belichick has demanded since arriving in Chapel Hill.
"Rebuilding a culture takes time, particularly in today's transfer portal era. If North Carolina is more competitive in big games, avoids the self-inflicted mistakes that plagued last season, and finishes strong, a six-win season becomes a foundation instead of a failure."
Frankly, a 6-6 record would feel like a failure for Belichick. He'd be 10-14 in two seasons at UNC, which was not the expectation when Mack Brown was fired. That kind of record would feel brutal for a program paying Belichick $10 million a year to build the 33rd team.
If anything, it would be a success to see Belichick beat one of these teams: Pitt, Duke, Notre Dame, Clemson, or Miami.
UNC has two legendary coaches on its sideline this year, and they need to pull off some impressive wins to land better commits.
