Northwestern will face Virginia on Friday at the Greenbrier Tip-Off in White Sulphur Springs, W.Va., taking on a rebranded program ranked 38th nationally per KenPom. The Cavaliers are looking to return to the NCAA Tournament after missing the Big Dance last season, presenting a significant ACC test for the Wildcats before Big Ten play begins.

Scouting Virginia

Virginia enters a new era under first-year head coach Ryan Odom after Tony Bennett's shocking retirement in October 2024, just weeks before the season started. Ron Sanchez served as interim coach for 2024-25, but the Cavaliers struggled to a 15-17 record and missed the postseason entirely — their first losing season since 2010-11.

Odom, hired from VCU after the season, immediately overhauled the roster through the transfer portal. Virginia signed seven transfers, ranking 28th in 247Sports' transfer rankings, and has turned everything around. The Cavaliers are fresh off a 4-0 start, just like Northwestern, outscoring opponents by 29.3 points per game through those four victories.

With a 119.1 adjusted offensive efficiency ranking 30th nationally and a 59.1% effective field goal rate, Virginia has embraced a faster-paced, offensive-minded style — a disparity from Bennett's approach. But the Cavaliers remain outstanding defensively, holding opponents to just 39.7% effective field goal percentage, fourth-best in the country per KenPom.

Most notably, Virginia has dominated the glass. The Cavaliers are garnering 46.0 rebounds per game (20th nationally) and rank 10th in offensive rebounds (17.5 per game). Their 48.3% offensive rebounding rate ranks fourth in the country, making the offensive glass a 50-50 opportunity. This could trouble Northwestern's frontcourt.

Key players to watch include San Francisco transfer Malik Thomas (12.0 PPG, 2.8 APG), a three-level scorer who averaged 19.9 points at USF last season, and Belgian forward Thijs De Ridder (17.3 PPG, 6.0 RPG), who brings two years of professional experience from Spain's Liga Endesa. The 6-foot-8 forward has been Virginia's most consistent scorer through four games.

Keep an eye on BYU transfer Dallin Hall, listed as the team's best player according to EvanMiya's Bayesian Performance Rating. Though his scoring numbers are modest, Hall leads Virginia with 5.5 assists per game, serving as the offensive catalyst. His 81st-ranked offensive rating nationally as a starter demonstrates why he's one of the most influential players on the roster.

What Northwestern Brings to the Table

Northwestern (4-0) currently sits 46th nationally per KenPom, bringing a balanced attack on both ends. Beyond escaping DePaul's hard-fought battle last Friday, the Wildcats outscored their first three opponents by significant margins, establishing themselves as a team with depth and versatility.

The matchup inside the arc should be fascinating. Northwestern boasts elite perimeter defense, limiting opponents' two-point shooting to 40.4% — eighth-best nationally. But Virginia holds opponents to 39.4% on two-pointers, ranking fourth. A battle inside the perimeter is inevitable, and given both teams play at nearly identical slow tempos, this figures to be a low-scoring, defensive slugfest.

An intriguing factor is Northwestern's bench depth. The Wildcats rank 27th nationally in bench minutes after Chris Collins deployed a wider rotation through the first four games. This young team, loaded with newcomers, has used these early contests to acclimate to college basketball's physicality and pace. In a grueling game like this one projects to be, depth could be an X factor. When starters struggle, bench players becomes crucial.

KenPom Odd: 48%

KenPom gives Northwestern a 48% chance to win, essentially calling this a coin flip. For the Wildcats to emerge victorious, they'll need to solve Virginia's rebounding dominance, particularly on the offensive glass where the Cavaliers are feasting. Arrinten Page and Nick Martinelli must box out consistently and limit their second-chance opportunities.

Northwestern must also capitalize on its perimeter defense advantage while finding ways to score against Virginia's elite interior defense. The Wildcats' balanced scoring attack, featuring Martinelli, Page and Jayden Reid, plus emerging freshman Tre Singleton, needs to execute efficiently in the half-court against a disciplined ACC opponent.

Last but not least, Northwestern's depth could be the difference-maker. If Collins can get productive minutes from his bench, the Wildcats can wear down UVA’s prowes and steal a road victory in the neutral site.

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